Bekkay Harrach Confirmed Dead in Afghanistan

As you can see by the lack of posts recently on the site, work has kept the entire Al Sahwa crew very busy over the last few months (we have to find some way to pay the ridiculously high rent here in DC!). However, I'm hoping to pick back up the pace of our posts during 2011. I'm excited to dive into Georgetown's Security Studies Program starting this semester, which will demand much of my time, but also hopefully re-energize the analytical and critical thinking parts of my brain. I'll be concentrating primarily on Terrorism and Substate Violence, which fits quite nicely with the original focus of the site. In our attempts to increase the frequency of posts, you might notice a slight decrease in the length of our articles, but hopefully not in the quality.


To start things off, I wanted to link to an excellent article/profile written by Chris Anzalone over at Foreign Policy (Chris also blogs at Views from the Occident, one of my daily reads). He profiles the recently deceased Bekkay Harrach, who was a key face for Al Qaeda in its European/German operations. Bekkay aka Abu Talha al Almani was reportedly killed in May 2010 leading a complex suicide attack on Bagram Airfield in eastern Afghanistan.

This is significant for many reasons, most of which Anzalone highlights expertly in his article, including:

• The rising levels of German citizens traveling to the AfPak region to participate in attacks; and the related implications of the ability for these individuals to acquire safe haven in Waziristan and NW Pakistan.

• The increasing ties between Al Qaeda Central, the Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) - who all reportedly collaborated for the attack that Harrach died in.

• The pattern of using "local" spokespersons on many As Sahab media productions (such as Adam Gadahn in many of the English-language videos), indicating the increasing Western-focused media campaign by AQ. This clearly has direct recruiting/operational implications as well.

However, this report also prompted me to ask another question: why would AQ Central approve/allow such an important strategic figure to participate in what was essentially a tactical level operation? By many reports, Bekkay was one of the key inspirational and operational leaders of a group of German citizens who had traveled to the AfPak region and were serving as a forward hub for many European AQ members who wanted to participate in the jihad in Afghanistan. The only logical reason for Bekkay Harrach to lead the attack would be to gain additional followers and recruits after martyring himself. Essentially, he made the calculus that his death was more valuable to the organization than the work he was doing while still alive. Despite this possibility, I still have a hard time seeing the leadership of AQ Central being willing to lose such an important media/propaganda figure in such an attack. Anyone have other competing theories that might explain this anomaly?

From Pakistan to Times Square?

As usual, Bill Roggio at the Long War Journal has some excellent exclusive coverage of the latest claims made by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP). In a video recently posted to YouTube (and since removed), Qari Hussein Mehsud - one of the TTP's top explosives experts - took "full responsibility for the recent attack in the USA."

Mehsud explained that "this attack is a revenge for the great and valuable martyred leaders of the mujahideen"- listing Baitullah Mehsud (killed in August 09), Abu Umar al Baghdadi (AUAB), and Abu Ayyub al Masri (AAM).


Additionally, the TTP sent a videotape and audiotape to the Long War Journal that were intended to serve as proof of life for Hakimullah Mehsud, who was initially thought to be killed in an airstrike in January. In the video (produced on 04 April), Mehsud specifically warned of impending attacks in the US, saying "The time is very near when our fedayeen will attack the American states in their major cities...and god willing we will give extremely painful blows to the fanatic America."

Although it's impressive that the TTP's media wing (Umar Studios) was able to so quickly capitalize on the failed attack in Times Square, I believe it's unlikely that the Pakistan-based group was actually responsible. My primary reasoning for this assessment is the method/TTP employed in the attack - which has been reported as a very crude device made of 3x propane tanks, 2x jugs of gasoline, dozens of M-88 firecrackers, and a metal gun case holding 100x lbs. of fertilizer (which police said was incapable of exploding). The only possible explanation for the TTP using such a crude bomb would be that is served as a "test run" to gauge our response/reaction prior to one or more follow-on attacks with more sophisticated devices.

Looking forward, it will be critical for NYPD and federal officials to conduct a detailed exploitation of all evidence (videotapes, detonation device, biometrics, etc.) to determine who was actually responsible. Unfortunately, I believe this attack could mark the beginning of what I predict will be a series of VBIEDs that will strike targets across the US in the coming months/years. The increased use - and success - of the VBIED TTP in both Iraq and Afghanistan by Al Qaeda and affiliated groups (and in several other areas where the group operates) makes it almost inevitable that we'll see this TTP migrate to the US.

Hakimullah Mehsud Update

Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud (L) sits beside Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal Al-Balawi, the suicide bomber who killed CIA agents in Afghanistan on 30 Dec, in this still image taken from video released January 9, 2010

We continue to see conflicting reports from Pakistani authorities and TTP leaders/spokesmen on the possible death of Hakimullah Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik i Taliban Pakistan).

Bill Roggio at the Long War Journal provides two great updates on the situation here and here. Both sides have released public statements in the last 1-2 days, while US intelligence officials continue to provide no confirmation one way or the other. Today, Maulvi Noor Jamal aka Maulvi Toofan (a TTP commander who reportedly took over for Hakimullah) issued a statement saying, "Hakeemullah was neither killed nor I have been appointed acting emir of the Taliban."

Contrasting the Taliban statements, the Pakistani Interior Minister Rehman Malik also released a statement claiming he had "credible information" that Hakimullah was in fact dead, but he offered no concrete evidence. Unfortunately, Malik has been wrong several times before with his claims of dead insurgent leaders, in particular when he claimed that Hakimullah was killed in a clash back in Aug 2009 over who would succeed the recently killed Baitullah Mehsud.

Although no credible evidence exists either way (due in large part to the inability of Pakistani forces to even operate in the area where Hakimullah was reportedly killed - near the city of Multan), I believe that Hakimullah is in fact dead or gravely injured. The persistent nature of the rumors of his death have typically been enough to justify a videotape, but this time we saw a highly unusual statement at the end of January from Taliban spokesman Azam Tariq who claimed that the TTP didn't have to release a video to prove Hakimullah was alive. I strongly believe that if Hakimullah was able to make a video, it would have already been released by now to assuage concerns stemming from the rumors of his death. The lack of a video and the bizarre rationale for not releasing anything are in my opinion the strongest proof that Hakimullah is in fact dead (or so seriously hurt that he cannot be filmed in his current state).

Al Sahwa will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as they become available.