An IO Blunder?

Last Thursday a suicide bomber attacked a Somali medical school graduation in Mogadishu. Among the 22 killed were 3 FTG ministers. Al Shabaab denied any involvement in the attack the next day, which initially confused me because at face value this seemed like a pretty big score on their part. It wasn’t until I came across this today on BBC that I realized this may have been a major setback to their propaganda efforts. It will be interesting to see if this continued anti-al Shabaab energy continues, and how al Shabaab reacts to the negative national and international attention it is receiving from this attack. A decreased group signature in response to the attacks would likely signify weakness on the part of al Shabaab. So while the group may curb operations in and around Mogadishu for a while, they will likely to become more violent in the southern portion of Somalia in an attempt to quell any dissent among the populace.

-User81

On the edge of the abyss?

Is the Prime Minister of Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) asking the West to occupy Somalia? In an open letter to The Times on Saturday, Omar Sharmarke argued that President Obama’s plan for Afghanistan is applicable to Somalia as well, and that the Somali situation was not hopeless even after 20 years without a government. This is an interesting comparison, and the two countries certainly have some similarities: failing governments that are propped up by foreign powers (ISAF, AU), illegal sources of income (piracy, opium), and regional instability spreading outward from each nation. Oh, and raging insurgencies, can’t forget about that part. I do agree with Sharmarke that if the TFG is going to succeed, a greater international emphasis must be placed on stabilization efforts in the country, especially enduring economic efforts that sap groups like al Shabaab of potential recruits.

What stuck out to me in Sharmarke’s letter was the fact he wrote it in the first place. This undoubtedly indicates a sense of compounding fear and frustration within the TFG over their current diplomatic efforts with the West. But, is this also a signal that the TFG is closer to overthrow than we in the West likely realize?