tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-45495708442464205222024-03-06T00:32:45.983-05:00al SahwaA network of warfighters, analysts, and scholars dedicated to critically examining the future of intelligence and irregular warfare (COIN, CT, PSYOP, IO)Pat Ryanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13937507399915070637noreply@blogger.comBlogger201125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-20853437482448927522011-07-26T22:05:00.004-04:002011-07-26T22:31:32.621-04:00Is delusion an environmentally-enhanced trait?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves/> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:donotpromoteqf/> <w:lidthemeother>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:lidthemeasian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:lidthemecomplexscript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> 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Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal">Normally I thoroughly enjoy reading Christian Science Monitor.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Their articles are well written and typically on point.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2011/0726/In-Afghanistan-US-military-officials-say-it-s-now-or-never">This article</a>, published yesterday from Anne Mulrine, left me scratching my head.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>While well written, I’m a little confused by the personalities she selected to quote through most of the article.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Did she not have access to a Battalion Commander or his S-3?</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Some of my favorite quotes from this article:</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style:normal">…says Col. Clay Hall, commander of the US Air Force’s 455th Expeditionary Operations Group (EOG). “There’s a feeling of, ‘Let’s use them to maximum effect.’ As we pull out,” with fewer and fewer US troops on the ground, “those engagements are going to become less and less effective.”</i></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Since when is the Commander of a Group of flyers qualified to discuss the effectiveness of current or future ground operations?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Sure he said, “There’s a feeling”, but again, this is not his lane.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> I'm not discussing whether he's correct or not, the point is that he's not a ground force commander. </span>And honestly, could the reporter not find someone better to interview about ground operations than a pilot?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>How about look for someone, anyone, not wearing those awesome blue tiger stripes or a flight suit?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Next.</p> <p 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{mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal">“It’s a Pyrrhic victory is the bottom line.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I’m sorry, what?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Pyrrhic victory?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>The fact that the Taliban still has the capability to mass 300 determined fighters after a decade in this country is scary.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>And to say we have the enemy on his heels?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Seriously, do you honestly believe that?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>This article is about the Taliban shifting operations to <u>your</u> Regional Command; as well as massing 300 determined fighters on one of your Platoons.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>And you, the Commanding General, think you have the Taliban on its heels in your area of operations?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Luckily, that Platoon was able to fight its way out with seemingly outstanding support from our Air Force brethren.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>But RC East has been on the receiving end of massed Taliban attacks before, and they didn’t always <a href="http://www.armytimes.com/news/2010/02/army_keating_020710w/">end so well for us</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Is this a TTP we truly want to replicate because their body count was a lot higher than ours?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">How about a little candor? Why not try something like this, <span style="font-style: italic;">"The Air Force did a great job providing Close Air Support to beleaguered ground forces. My boys got pretty lucky with this one, but we won't always get that lucky. As the Commanding General of this Area of Operations, I am committed to disrupting, denying and defeating the insurgent networks operating in my area of operations well before they are able to mass to that level and attack my boys. again We got lucky with this, but I intend to take luck out of the equation and bring the fight to them before they can bring it to us like this again. Moving forward, my goals and plans may not progress perfectly; but we will do everything in our power, top-down, to keep a situation like this from happening again through comprehensive and holistic/integrated offensive operations directed against these networks." </span><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes">If I were in RC East I'd get pumped reading something that honest and determined from my CG. Instead they get to read puffery and feel like their CG is willing to tempt fate with their lives to try for more Pyrrhic victories. </span><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"><br /></span></p>Josh McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-85309899067560119362011-07-26T10:21:00.003-04:002011-07-26T10:52:37.043-04:00Syria & Organized OppositionThe Wall Street Journal reports that Syria's Cabinet is working on draft law to Allow <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903591104576467800676557890.html?mod=WSJ_World_LEFTSecondNews#project%3DMIDEASTTIMELINE1102%26articleTabs%3Darticle">Organized Opposition</a> by "new political parties" who operate. I wonder if this move comes in light of the People's demand for change or as a strategy of the ruling party to control operations. Violence, of course, has been a major concern, but even though this strategy promises reform in order to quell violence the law may indeed spark more protests in opposition to this new-phased governance campaign.<br /><br />Why - simply because its restricts the parameters of the protests and therefore hinders the dialogue the People want to have. Political parties (or their representatives) must submit an application to receive a license to organize and operate, upon which a Committee will conclude whether to grant license or not. I presume the Committee's "explanation" will be a forthright statement and will not include detailed reasons for or against, which will prove to be another point of contention for the People.<br /><br />For example, criteria include "a ban on links or affiliation to any non-Syrian political groupings." Firstly, this pretty much will exclude almost everyone. The Committee, who will rule as a representative of the ruling party of the Syrian "state and society", can define "links" or "affiliation" according to their interpretation. Secondly, in effect, such definitions will enable the Committee to further define the strength or degree of relationship(s) between the organizing party who seeks a license and their "non-Syrian" link or affiliation. Citizen records, testimony, and avenues such as the Internet will most likely be used to confirm this.<br /><br />Once again, we continue to deal with Socrates' Metaphor of the Cave: the State <em>presents</em> images to the People according to their worldview in order to met the objectives of their strategy. Even after the draft law is passed, lawyers will argue on behalf of the State that it is not supported by the Syrian Constitution, and the People will argue that the process is not working.<br /><br />The People will continue to protest emerging points of contention to the misunderstanding of the State.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-60232512879366444252011-06-17T13:03:00.000-04:002011-06-17T13:04:36.844-04:00Social Welfare<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves/> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:donotpromoteqf/> <w:lidthemeother>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:lidthemeasian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:lidthemecomplexscript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:compatibility> 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{mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal">Came across <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/16/opinion/16kristof.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=general">this article</a> yesterday and revisited it today trying to decide whether it was worth a post.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Since a) I have not posted really at all lately, and b) this is the most e-mailed NYT Op-Ed as of today, I figure it warrants a post.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Up front, Nicholas Kristof is absolutely correct that the US Military is a social welfare experiment.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>The options for child care from a cost-based perspective are outstanding.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>And the military can be credited with a couple significant accolades for being ahead of the power curve in regard to social equality.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">However, these are not the key points Kristof is trying to get across.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Instead his main points are that the military should serve as a (or rather, the) model for universal healthcare and investment in human capital.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Unfortunately, I disagree.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Here’s why:</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I think everyone would be pretty disappointed with military healthcare.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>From issues within the Army’s <a href="http://www.military.com/news/article/docs-show-wounded-warrior-care-shortfalls.html?ESRC=army.nl">Warrior Transition Units</a> to the military’s overemphasis on time and anti-inflammatory medication for seemingly any malady, military healthcare has significant issues.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Many of my more left-leaning friends repeatedly make the argument that “at least you have healthcare”.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Couldn’t argue with that logic.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>But what I can argue with is the level of care provided by the military.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Have a significant orthopedic issue and want to see the world-renowned surgeon up the street?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>You’re either going to be denied or face significant hurdles trying to get up there even if the doctor accepts Tricare.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Random aches and pains?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>You’ll likely never know what it was (and neither will your doctor), but you’ll absolutely receive a prescription for either Ibuprofen or Naproxen.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Is this the best we can do?</p> <p class="MsoNormal">On to the more military-relevant topic of Kristof’s Op-Ed, the topic of human capital investment.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>From the outside, the military’s use of career-level oriented schooling for the purposes of training and human capital investment sounds great.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>But in reality, the majority of students (past the basic course) attending their career-level oriented course have already spent a significant amount of time executing the positions for which they’re being trained.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>I spent nearly six months at the Captain-level school learning how to hold essential Captain-level positions within my branch.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Would’ve been a decent education had I not already held almost all of the positions.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>And more importantly, the level the course was taught at was the level I taught my Lieutenants to think at.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>The Officer education system is woefully outdated, inadequate and expects too little from its students. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Kristof should spend a little more time talking to experienced Soldiers and Officers within the ranks before he makes such a bold conceptual assumption about the broader utility of military healthcare and human capital investment.</p>Josh McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-5612624810981122322011-05-02T14:39:00.002-04:002011-05-02T15:10:48.081-04:00UBL sans frontierAmazin news.........inspiring......uplifting....satisfying.......Usama bin Laden is dead! Archenemy, if the US ever had one, is bested, defeated, and sent to the depths of the Arabian Sea. For all Americans, from those to whom 9/11 was as close as the War on Terror got to those who have spent years away from home killing and being killed, this is just and proper. <br /><br />With UBL's demise the professional and lay speculation about the future of AQ and the global jihad is in full bloom. While "voices of reason" such as Sec. Napolitano are starting to warn that this is not the end of the War and that his end, though symbolic and fitting, does not mean GWOT is won and done, others are no less prophetic about the loss of faith the average mujahid may suffer, stuck as he is between the stone age and a democratic new middle-east (the NYT seemingly devoted the entire Op-Ed section on 2 May to the debate). <br /><br />There is a voice that begs for redefinition when something momentous happens. Something that says "tomorrow is different than yesterday". Yet we must let history be the wax in our ears against this Siren's song. UBL was a leader in a 'global jihad'. 9/11 was the most successfull attack of a decade-old 'struggle against the Great Satan' (e.g. 1993 WTC bombing, 1998 Embassy bombings, USS Cole, etc). The Mujahid is the man that must be disuaded from fighting, persuaded to help, and/or killed and his wife must be likewise, for she instills the virtues of the jihad in her sons. The lessons of the coming weeks will shed some light on the pervasive divide between CT and COIN. Is it enough to physically hurt the agents of terror or must we "convert" the agents and their mothers away from it until some tolerable threshhold is reached?<br /><br />I suspect the results will hardly solve anything. Our tendency to hyperbole and oversimplification will effectively and predictably guide us to "answers" that will hold until another defining moment that leads us to fear or jubilation. Or so the tendency has been. The Napolitano's of the world who see global terrorism as an endemic condition to last a lifetime are perhaps on the right side of the scale, although their tendencies have weaknesses a-plenty. InshAllah, we will overcome our tendencies. Then again, let's enjoy the moment and then go about our business.Sparapethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15145022421958154919noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-6584256960177312652011-04-23T10:09:00.003-04:002011-04-23T10:17:13.373-04:00Weekly Update<p class="MsoNormal">Back from another long hiatus from the blogosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>There’s so much going on in the world, yet every time I think I have something to say, I come across someone who’s already said it.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Besides that, with my wife’s quickly approaching PCS and the end of my terminal leave/start of a new career, I have been a little keener on fly fishing, kayaking and carting around the 4-year-old blonde “princess terrorist” to her many sporting events and princess outings.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Soon enough I’ll be back after it full time; until then I’ll continue to add to the site somewhat sporadically and hope we still have a couple interested readers by then.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Greg Mortenson and the Three Cups of Tea mess.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-04-18/three-cups-of-tea-writer-greg-mortensons-lasting-lessons-in-afghanistan/">Andrew Exum</a> and <a href="http://tachesdhuile.blogspot.com/2011/04/three-cups-of-what-how-about-nice-tall.html">Gulliver from Ink Spots</a> covered most of what I would’ve said, and far more eloquently.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Whether Mortenson tells tall tales or not, at this point, through the prism of his military relationship, is irrelevant.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>As Exum and Gulliver already covered, by the time Three Cups of Tea became a “must read” in military circles, most young Army and Marine leaders were already well on their way to diabetes from the gallons of chai (tea) we’d all poured down our throats over the course of multiple deployments.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>The media’s incessant <a href="http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/20/pentagon-is-quiet-on-three-cups-of-tea-questions/?partner=rss&emc=rss">linking</a> to the Pentagon, and Counterinsurgency practice in general, really is lazy on their part.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Honestly, I am a huge Jon Krakauer fan; he is a genuinely fascinating individual.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>An old family friend, I always made sure I never missed a get-together when I knew he would also be in attendance.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> "</span>Into the Wild" and "Eiger Dreams" still have a place front-and-center in my bookcase. Needless to say, big fan.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>What I’m not completely sure of at this point is Jon’s motive for exposing Mortenson in the way he did.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Hopefully it’s pure investigative journalism for journalism’s sake and not something more wide-eyed and nefarious.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">P.S. I came across <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/20/greg-mortenson-sued-tribesmen-kidnapped">this article</a> from the Guardian on my phone tonight and had to link to it here.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>I’m sure Greg Mortenson is praying for a shiny ball to divert everyone’s attention anywhere else at this point.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Topic 2: Libya, naturally.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">First off, what in the hell is John McCain doing parading around <a href="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20110423/ZNYT03/104233000/-1/news?Title=Senator-McCain-Visits-Libyan-Rebel-Headquarters">Benghazi</a>?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>I love the guy, and it doesn’t take a PhD to figure out what he’s trying to effect with this act, but I’m not a fan of this move. </p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8469371/Libya-army-may-leave-Misurata-to-tribes.html">Tribes</a> loyal to Qadhafi are telling the uniformed Libyan army to retreat from Misrata so they can fix the problem.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>My favorite quote from the linked article: “the tactic of the army is to have a surgical solution.”<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Right… nothing about artillery barrages, or really anything happening on the ground in Libya right now, can be equated with the term “surgical” in a war fighting context.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">The Washington Post <i style="mso-bidi-font-style:normal">with Foreign Policy</i> pretty much dropped the ball on more than half of <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/obama-authorizes-predator-drone-strikes-in-libya/2011/04/21/AFWELQKE_story.html">this article</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>So hopefully Greg Jaffe, Edward Cody and William Branigin are reading this and will email me after so I can become their ISR contact.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">1)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]-->24/7 coverage over Libya by at least two Predators means that several units in Iraq and Afghanistan are not getting the support they need.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Just by using the hokey math in the article, that’s at least four platforms that could be used in an operational theater where we have uniformed boots on the ground and therefore (hopefully) ground intelligence to tell the sensor operators where to look.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>I don’t know of a single unit that has ever said they received enough full motion video support; on the contrary it’s usually a big AAR comment for most units that they didn’t receive enough.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>ISR, especially long-duration FMV, is a low-density high-demand asset in both theaters.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>And shouldn’t priority of a ground support intelligence gathering asset like this be prioritized to US and NATO forces who are actually on the ground trying to win the first two wars we were involved in?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>If not to the uniformed warfighter on the ground, surely then we could be using these somewhere else where we’re chasing around elements of al Qaeda in Africa, Yemen, Pakistan, etc?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>The bottom line is that these platforms could (and should) easily be utilized elsewhere.</p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span class="apple-style-span"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style:normal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">2)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span></i></span><!--[endif]--><span class="apple-style-span"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;line-height:115%;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black">“<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">The unmanned aircraft can stay over an area for upwards of 12 hours at a stretch, making them much better at distinguishing rebel troops from loyalist forces than faster-moving fighter jets, which also must stay at higher altitudes.</span>”</span></b></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:11.5pt;line-height:115%;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold"> <span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>This was a decent attempt.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Do the authors think our fighter pilots are trying to look out the cockpit glass from 14,000 feet up and trying to discern friend from foe?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Maybe to get a general feel for what’s happening on the ground, but definitely not for PID purposes on the ground there with the grab bag of vehicles on both sides.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Loiter time surely helps in allowing those watching “Kill TV” to take their time and make that solid PID.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>But this has everything to do with loiter time and nothing to do with flight speed of either aircraft or their respective preferred flight altitudes.</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style:normal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;line-height:115%;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span class="apple-style-span"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style:normal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">3)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span></i></span><!--[endif]--><span class="apple-style-span"><b><span style="font-size:11.5pt;line-height:115%; mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black">“Predators carry relatively small Hellfire missiles that are much more effective than precision guided bombs at striking enemy troops in heavily populated urban areas.</span>”</b></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;line-height:115%;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>This sentence receives an F for many, many reasons.</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height: 115%;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span class="apple-style-span"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style:normal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">4)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span></i></span><!--[endif]--><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;line-height:115%; mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black; mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">Discussing strikes in the context of Qadhafi forces hiding out in high collateral, urban areas: <b>“The drones could open up targets there were previously off-limits to NATO aircraft.</b></span><b>”</b><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Possibly.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>I’m not there and I haven’t seen any of the target specs that these guys are working.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>There are a ton of “what if’s” here, so I’ll give them this one but very skeptically as one just need to consider the standard trajectory of a bomb versus a missile in an urban environment.</span><span class="apple-style-span"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height: 115%;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style:normal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;line-height:115%;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">5)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span></i><!--[endif]--><span class="apple-style-span"><b><span style="font-size:11.5pt;line-height:115%;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black">“Some European officials have lamented the absence of U.S. A-10 Warthog ground-attack jets — specifically designed for close air support — and AC-130 gunships. While the low- and slow-flying planes were deployed in small numbers during the first two weeks of the campaign, they were rarely used because of fears they would be shot down by the Libyan army.</span>”</b></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;line-height:115%;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Piss off, get your own awesome CAS platforms!<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>While you’re at it, buy <a href="http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=5183706">even more</a> of our awesome UAVs and fly them over Libya yourself.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Maybe we can export our way out of this huge financial hole we’re in after all.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style:normal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;line-height:115%;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Lots more soon enough… until then many more fish to catch.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p>Josh McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-51625995165462706942011-04-13T12:10:00.003-04:002011-04-13T13:36:26.677-04:00No Frontline Fronts in Front of the RearSince the end of the Cold War there has been a trend, often addressed here and in other blogs/forums, of seeing "future war" as fundamentally different in a key aspect: symmetry. What symmetry means, of course, is up for debate. Is it a physical symmetry of forces? Well, Sun Tzu said the best battle is won before it is fought. So, attack with a great advantage of the best technology, the best troops, and best logistics. This seems to imply that the best way to fight a battle (i.e. a war) is against a weaker opponent...not much to do with symmetry. Then there is the metaphysical symmetry of engagement; the notion that we used to fight on a "front" that had a "rear". That the breakdown of this symmetry creates the a-symmetrical battlefield where the "front" is the "rear" and the "rear" is the "front". The idea, of course, that this is the new paradigm. Well then, what are we to do with Lybia then? In Lybia we have fronts, rears, cities cut off and under siege, forces retreating and advancing, all in an oddly familiar way. So too we have in Cote D'Ivoire as a faction advanced from its stronghold in the north on the capital and besieged its opponents. Again, the invasion of Iraq progressed along a front that moved rapidly from Kuwait to Mosul. Weird. Why do these exceptions to a paradigm exist? After all, if the point of a paradigm is to set the framework to understanding, then XXI century conflicts should fall under this new asymmetrical paradigm. Why do these other "things" exist? Perhaps the answer is best found in the one place where everything that has ever been tried can be found: history. These exceptions to the asymmetrical rule show us a couple of things. First, frontlines exist when opposing forces meet. As Fallujah was being cleared north to south, there was a front and a rear for both the coalition and the rebels. The continental fronts of WWI and WWII are historical oddities of the industrialized, multi-million man armies. The scale of the front is the important part. Second, and most important, is that the scale of the front is determined by the size of the weakest participant. For instance, when an infantry platoon engages a rebel squad, their front is 400 m wide and their rear extends 800m deep and the action lasts a few minutes to a few hours, thereafter closing the front. When a Division engages a Brigade, then the front could be 30 km wide and the rear extending 60 km deep. When an Army Group engages an Army then their AO (front + rear) can be 250km wide and 500 km deep and the action can last a few years, thereafter closing the front. A single war may have multiple fronts. TheUSSR was fond of naming their fronts in WWII, while the US likes to capture them with the term Campaigns (Italy campaign, Island Hopping, Normandie, North Africa etc). The front then is a point of engagement on a map. COIN, which is what Lybia is in the midst of (noting that their insurgents have serendipitously acquired an air force and a navy) has fronts too. Sometimes they are many and sometime few. Our intervention in Lybia has balanced the power of the insurgency with the government, allowing a front to stabilize. When the rebellion was weak it had multiple (nay, asymmetric) fronts, just as we have in OIF and OEF. As the rebellion grew in strength it was able to consolidate, allowing better territorial control and a more unified front. The concept of a front then, in the XXI century, is still valid. The problem with fighting a COIN fight is that the balance of power and distribution of forces of the participants create the possibility of something other than a continental front (remeber, it itself is an industrialized oddity, not the historic norm). So has a new paradigm in warfighting evolved since WWII that should force us to reimagine warfare? We shouldn't have to look much further than 500 yrs in the past to an astute observer of human nature for guidance. In The Prince, Machiavelli devoted some time to an interesting subject, the difficulty of conquering France vs. the ease of Alexander's conquest of Persia. I won't bore you with the details, but the conclusion was elegantly simple. A divided and poorly organized state is easier to conquer and harder to occupy. A united and well organized state is the opposite. I leave you with the thought that Afghanistan was always the former and until May 2003 (when we dissolved the organs of that organization) Iraq was the latter. In both there are fronts, and at those fronts scale is the determining factor, not an earth-shattering shift in the human condition necessitating a new paradigm.Sparapethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15145022421958154919noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-53859374202718020462011-03-09T04:19:00.002-05:002011-03-09T04:27:33.649-05:00Jack of Everything (Follow-on comments to my previous post)<p class="MsoNormal">Really enjoyed the multiple, and broad, responses to my last post. Unfortunately, Blogger didn't like my 1000+ word response. So I decided that instead of cutting it into multiple comments I would just create a new post. My responses by commenter: <span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">@ The Constitutional Insurgent: </p> <p class="MsoNormal">I too mostly agree with what you wrote.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Every NCO I’ve sent off to an NCOES over the last 3 years (at least) has already served at the level he was attending school for.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>This goes for 11, 13, and 35-series NCOs who have worked for me across multiple Battalions, so it’s not just a specific unit or MOS that’s behind the power curve.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">We’re seeing a major transformation of the POI for the training centers right now.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>I think the first Hybrid Threat MRX happened just a couple months ago.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Starbuck from WoI has a great post on the much ado about nothing that is the hybrid threat <a href="http://wingsoveriraq.com/2011/03/06/hybrid-war-why-the-hype/">here</a>.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">In terms of phased operations, this is a major issue that I think many Officers across the board will (and are already) struggle with.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>My recent first-hand experience shows two types: the first is so tired of COIN/LIC/SASO/SOSO/SO/IW/AW/not-HIC that they see this merely as an opportunity to get back to the “good ol’ days” of getting their K on, and the second group is stuck in the minimization of collateral damage and win hearts and minds absolute far-left end of the spectrum of conflict.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Neither, obviously, is better than the other; but more importantly it likely shows the lack of flexibility/adaptability in the thinking of many leaders.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>The ability to move fluidly along the spectrum of conflict and transition from Full Spectrum Ops to COIN to HA-type operations, or wherever in between, by phase or otherwise, is paramount.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>What I’ve seen over the last six months is leadership getting stuck on just one phase and forgetting about everything after that one specific phase.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>More in a couple paragraphs that should help finish this thought.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p> <p class="MsoNormal">@ Pat: </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Fully agree on all fronts.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>TRADOC has failed a half decade’s worth of Officers at least.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>I recently saw an entire Battalion fail one of their low-numbered firing tables; I’m sure a sizeable portion of that failure was attributable to TRADOC.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Not that I’m discounting leaders’ responsibility in this, but if you don’t know your job it’s probably a lot more difficult to make it through gunnery tables.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">This stroke of brilliance dawned on me as I sat here tonight next to Mama Mac studying for her next ACSC exam.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>What if the Army adopted a liberal arts style continuing education program for its Company Grade Officers?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>By this I mean a correspondence program where an Officer must complete one course focusing on a specific portion of the spectrum of conflict annually.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>The courses could be self-paced but with a mandatory completion date, take two to three months each, be tracked via AKO, accountable on OERs with no deployment waivers authorized, and focus separately on historic HIC, COIN, HA events/wars/uprisings, etc.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>I think a program like this would have tremendous benefits.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>It would help fill the gaps that TRADOC wasn’t able to get to.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>It would help span the spectrum of conflict and perhaps help broaden perspectives under GEN Dempsey’s new training plan.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>It would also help fill gaps in the Officer’s commissioning source education (think directional schools vs. USMA and Engineering vs. Military History undergraduate degrees). With a written paper or two in each course it would help Officers actually think in and write full sentences (which many cannot).<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>With this program an Officer, while training for the hybrid threat or the Red Horde, would read Galula and Trinquier and learn about the Algerian War; they would learn about British CT efforts in Northern Ireland, WWII, etc., the options along the spectrum of conflict are numerous and would help fill gaps.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>I know as well as you that you can’t just expect most Officers to learn about this stuff on their own; most of them would rather play Call of Duty than read anything.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>And I know what many of you reading this are saying, but what about JRTC/NTC/MRX/CPX/field problems?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>The classes would be self-paced and two to three months long, if it’s mandatory you’ll find the time to do it.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>This sort of program probably would have kept me a little more sober (and out of trouble) as a young Lieutenant, so there’s another benefit.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Enough with my diatribe, but I think the Army would be well served with a program like this.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">@ Anonymous (JB… didn’t think I’d catch that did you?!)</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I was actually considering a full post about the misapplication of the Full Spectrum Operations term and how most senior leaders are treating it solely as if it is HIC/MCO.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Phase IV what?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>But instead of writing that post I decided to go fly fishing.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Now a couple disagreements from your comment.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">First, I think Division and Corps-level exercises, while obviously difficult to execute and manpower intensive on subordinate units, are vitally important.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Take I Corps as an example, who will be deploying relatively soon.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Should their first non-digital exercise be in the combat environment in which they will take over day-to-day operations for?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>How do you truly test your systems?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Second, while I do agree with you that policy makers must understand and accept that actual Full Spectrum Ops should be off the table for the next couple years until the Army is back up to par.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>I think we’re seeing that now in the push back against military intervention in Libya.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Or maybe that’s because policy makers have no idea what the goals of intervention would be, a logical stopping point for our intervention if you will, and are loathe to commit US forces to another open-ended operation.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Perhaps.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>I digress.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>What I disagree with is your sentence where you say we should only do what we do well moving forward.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>In a perfect world sure, but I don’t see that world coming any time soon and we as an Army should be prepared to serve our Nation’s goals in whatever capacity POTUS decides to employ us in.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>A more realistic goal perhaps would be to train toward perfecting MCO and then implementing the broadening program I outlined above for CGOs; and then possibly expanding the ILE and War College-level cross-training opportunities for the best and brightest of each annual class.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>This could help create a solid cadre of senior-level SMEs on the core capabilities, strengths, weaknesses, etc, of each specific agency of the government.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>So with this kind of model you’d have a force trained for combat and leaders at every level able to understand and conceptualize Phase IV operations; with senior leaders able to maximize the efforts and contributions of all contributing agencies in a JIIM environment.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p>Josh McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-88315299329280200612011-03-04T01:44:00.003-05:002011-03-04T02:34:13.364-05:00Jack of all Trades<p class="MsoNormal">Just came across the <a href="http://www.armytimes.com/news/2011/02/army-dempsey-on-leadership-022811w/">GEN Dempsey article</a> from last week's Army Times. This article really hasn't sat well with me over the last couple days. Some thoughts...</p><p class="MsoNormal">Many leaders have significant issues spanning multiple spectrum's of conflict, sometimes on multiple blocks, or in short amounts of time. The reality is that many formations and their leaders simply are not capable of spanning the full spectrum of conflict. This is my biggest issue with this article; the notion that we as leaders must narrow our focus to master only a few key constructs; the “military pentathlete” (or as I call it, Renaissance Ranger) is on his way out the door.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>In the early days of Iraq, we had formations trained for linear combat against uniformed enemy formations.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Major Combat Ops were what they (we) did.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>As the situation worsened and gained complexity by the day, it quickly became apparent that our SOPs were not working.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>But many (most) units continued to hammer away.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>If we only work on and master a couple concepts, people will have a tendency to see through the prism of knowledge and experience; in essence, everything becomes a nail if all we’re carrying is a hammer.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>We learned the hard way that not everything is a nail, and that we needed to carry more than a hammer.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>I have already seen this regression to only carrying a hammer again firsthand over my most recent Reset phase of the training cycle.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">2.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span>Combined arms warfare is not lost, as many advocate.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>I would argue at the Battalion-and-below level it is (and has been) alive and well.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>At the tactical level, most Platoon Leaders and NCOs can effectively maneuver ground elements, provide task/purpose/EEI to FW and RW CAS as well as ISR platforms, while also coordinating with higher and adjacent units.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>These situations have been (and are) happening on a daily basis.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Things get fuzzy at the Brigade level, and downright messy at echelons above Brigade. <span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>There’s nothing like being in the heat of a situation and receiving a flurry of mIRC messages or phone calls from someone at Division because the old man is watching and wants to know exactly what we’re up to 200+ miles from his current location.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Apparently the myriad storyboards produced after an event just don’t provide quite the same level of satisfaction as watching a Squad Leader maneuver his fire teams near-real time (while also often providing near-real time feedback).<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>So, perhaps the capacity to conduct combined arms warfare at the Division or Corps –level is a more accurate statement.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">If we’re going to refocus our future doctrine and training plans to only a couple tasks, it seems imperative that we find a way to broaden leader’s skill sets so we don’t pigeon hole ourselves as an organization.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Further, if a jack-of-all-trades doesn’t make a leader, why do we as Officers switch jobs as often as we do?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> I was always told it was because as a future Commander it would help me understand everything I would need to in order to effectively command. Parallels?</span></p>Josh McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-31298741961334541182011-02-28T02:24:00.001-05:002011-02-28T02:26:13.174-05:00An Open Letter to Baghdad's City Council<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" >Came across this <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/17/us-iraq-usa-damages-idUSTRE71G2T820110217">absolutely amazing article</a> from <a href="http://www.reuters.com/">Reuters</a> about a week and a half ago; but doing the outprocessing dash across post prevented me from posting on it earlier. Fairly sarcastic responses to some of the better quotes; I couldn’t help myself.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" >"The U.S. forces changed this beautiful city to a camp in an ugly and destructive way, which reflected deliberate ignorance and carelessness about the simplest forms of public taste," the statement said.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" >Deliberate ignorance? Not sure about that. Most of us weren’t DELIBERATELY stupid; it was far more innocent and unintentional… this I can assure you. However, I do apologize for upsetting your discerning taste for architecture and urban planning by attempting to prevent scenarios like <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6327057.stm">this</a>. Beautiful city? Right, I’m sure it was just like Florence prior to March 2003.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><i><span style="mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin; color:black"><span class="Apple-style-span" >"Due to the huge damage, leading to a loss the Baghdad municipality cannot afford...we demand the American side apologize to Baghdad's people and pay back these expenses."<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black"><span class="Apple-style-span" >Ok, I’ll take the bait. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black"><span class="Apple-style-span" >Dear Baghdad, (let’s get this out of the way up front) I am sorry we were ever in your country. Be that as it may, I am sorry we had to set up so many Hesco and concrete barriers to protect you from each other… especially in Baghdad. I understand you are still targeting each other daily throughout most of the country, but we were unable to Hesco your ENTIRE country; instead only the areas we felt were most critical, volatile or dangerous at the time of emplacement. Unfortunately for you, most of Baghdad was akin to a level of Doom 3D and required massive amounts of dirt and concrete to separate one side from the other’s death squads. Timeouts just weren’t working anymore… <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black"><span class="Apple-style-span" >I’m also sorry that many of the locations of Joint Security Stations, checkpoints, etc., are right on roads, markets, or right in the middle of formerly volatile and deadly neighborhoods. Many of these locations were directed by YOUR security force leadership, but that obviously does not negate our responsibility at maintaining the pleasing aesthetics of your fair city. Yes it was our money that funded the security improvements to protect not only our warfighters, but yours, but that doesn’t excuse us either. But most of all, I am sorry we did everything we could think of to keep AQI out of the Shia neighborhoods, and the Special Groups out of the Sunni side of town at night. And I am also very sorry that we fortified the building that these politicians were sitting in when the Baghdad city council drafted this absurd statement. Oops, our bad. We’ll come pick those dirt and concrete barriers protecting you up first ok? <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black">As far as a payback goes, great idea, we’ll subtract it from the </span></span><a href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2010-03-22-iraqcosts_N.htm">$50 billion(ish)</a><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="color:black"> we’ve already spent there on reconstruction. Now you only owe use $49 billion. Pretty good deal, eh? Or you could just quit misappropriating the wealth from your </span></span><a href="http://usgovinfo.about.com/library/weekly/aairaqioil.htm">massive oil reserves</a><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="color:black"> and pay for the removal of this dirt and concrete yourselves. Just one of many options. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="apple-style-span"><i><span style="mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin; color:black">The statement made no mention of damage caused by bombing.</span></i></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black"><span class="Apple-style-span" >Really? I seemed to have missed that during all the absolutely ridiculous finger-pointing from the Baghdad city (or possibly beladiyah too?) government. I wonder what the reconstruction bill for AQI or JAM would look like for Baghdad.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><i><span style="mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin; color:black"><span class="Apple-style-span" >The heavy blast walls have damaged sewer and water systems, pavement and parks, said Hakeem Abdul Zahra, the city spokesman.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black"><span class="Apple-style-span" >Hakeem, maybe if you built anything in the last century even remotely close to internationally accepted building standards this would not have happened. It’s a possibility I think we should not throw out. Oh, also refer back to the $50 billion(ish) we’ve already spent trying to rebuild your country and the significant amount of corruption at all levels of government that has seriously degraded our reconstruction efforts from day one. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in"><i><span style="color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" >Baghdad is badly in need of a facelift. Electricity and trash collection are sporadic, streets are potholed and sewage treatment plants and pipes have not been renovated for years.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></p> <p style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in"><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span style="color: black; ">Much of this statement is true, Baghdad as a whole is likely worse today aesthetically and structurally than it was eight years ago. It definitely does not mean we have not attempted to not only fix what we’ve broken but also modernize a lot of the stuff that was broken before we even got there; especially in </span><a href="http://www.sigir.mil/files/assessments/PA-05-02.pdf">Baghdad</a> and even up north in <a href="http://www.usf-iraq.com/news/headlines/public-landfill-opens-on-earth-day">Diyala</a><span style="color:black">. But, at least they have the right to voice absurd statements like this one today. And the right to </span><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/21/iraq-new-government-sworn_n_799712.html">not seat a national government</a><span style="color:black"> for 9 months, which effectively paralyzed Provincial and below governments (which I experienced firsthand for most of 2010), who were leery of unintentionally crossing whatever master eventually was seated in Baghdad.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in"><span style="color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" >Time to take the lead and hold someone other than US Forces-Iraq accountable.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 11pt; "><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>Josh McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-70934005686868965662011-02-08T03:26:00.006-05:002011-02-08T04:05:22.218-05:00Moscow's Festering TerroristsHard to believe that <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12388681">this</a> came from the same group that made <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7ICGdBVJ8g">this</a>. Doku Umarov is a master at keeping his cause never-too-far from the headlines. Almost a year ago exactly, JD provided a great rundown of Umarov in his “<a href="http://al-sahwa.blogspot.com/2010/02/whos-who-terrorist-edition-doku-umarov.html">Who’s Who Terrorist</a>” series. That, along with <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12269155">this profile</a> from the BBC, should be ample primer for the uninformed on the notorious Chechen insurgent leader.<br /><br />Seems as if Umarov is hoping for a major retaliatory crackdown in the North Caucasus by Russian Security Forces, likely with the hope of reigniting separatist aspirations of the region’s population. I’m not a big follower of the region, but I do think it will be pretty interesting to see how Russia handles this moving forward.Josh McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-59413851680890621172011-02-04T16:46:00.002-05:002011-02-04T16:54:13.833-05:00The Post-Authoritarian Middle EastIt has now been over two months since my last post, I’ve definitely been slacking as of late. Between hunting with my Griffon pup Darby, ski trips, and vacations to Hawaii I have been off my writing and analytical game. My big update recently has been the approval of my ETS packet so I will be out of the Army and into the unemployment line within a month. So if you happen to see a 30-ish guy who looks like he just got out of the Army holding a homeless vet sign, that may be me. It’s been an interesting seven years thus far, mostly a positive set of experiences, but it’s time to move on. I won’t bore everyone reading this with the laundry list of reasons for my departure from the military; suffice it to say the cons started to outweigh the pros so I’m hanging up my proverbial hat. I may or may not write a future post on my perspective of the woeful state of my soon-to-be-former branch after I go on terminal leave, I am yet to fully weigh the merits of such a post. <br /><br />I am definitely looking forward to my next professional challenge, which hopefully will get finalized in the next couple weeks; otherwise you’ll be able to find me on the saltwater flats outside of Honolulu chasing Bonefish with a fly rod or carting my daughter around to her various sport practices (something that “Major Mommy” has been doing very well on her own far too long). <br /><br />Onto more serious news. <br /><br />Every warm blooded American Soldiers’ favorite reporter <a href="http://newsfeed.time.com/2011/02/03/time-exclusive-cbss-lara-logan-and-crew-detained-in-cairo-as-violence-escalates/">Lara Logan</a> was detained in Cairo. I was ambivalent on the uprising until I read this; now I want whoever is responsible to pay! But seriously, I am still fairly undecided on whether this is a good thing or not. My humanitarian side fully supports the uprising for the good of the Egyptian people. However, the realist side of me is more than a little worried. Not knowing what the next government will look like is an obvious concern. Whoever comes next will undoubtedly not unabashedly support American interests the way Mubarak has, which isn’t necessarily the end of the world; but I do worry our access into Africa and the Middle East will dwindle even more. And for the Egyptian people, I think they are forgetting the lessons learned by the Iraqi people about coming out from under a dictator after an extended period of time. The Iraqis had (and still have) absolutely no idea how to run a government; so hopefully they will not fully disband and fully replace their civil servants. What will hopefully emerge is a moderate government; and they will need trained and established civil servants to reduce lag time for the improvement of essential services. <br /> <br />Then when we consider that Egypt has been the historical leader of the Middle East, things get even more troubling for us. Counterterror operations against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula throughout Yemen, the last known residence of Anwar al Awlaki, will undoubtedly become more difficult when <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/yemen/8297748/Yemen-president-to-step-down.html">Ali Abdullah Saleh</a> steps down in 2013, or is forced out earlier. Is Yemen bound to be the next Afghanistan then? Will we continue to have a military presence on the Sinai? Will we be able to continue our CT efforts in Yemen?<br /> <br />The Egyptian uprising leaves us with more questions than answers on what the Middle East of tomorrow will look like; and even more about our position in the region we have expended more time and resources in than any other in the past three decades.Josh McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-59437167941045273112011-01-31T14:01:00.015-05:002011-01-31T14:54:56.920-05:00Bekkay Harrach Confirmed Dead in AfghanistanAs you can see by the lack of posts recently on the site, work has kept the entire Al Sahwa crew very busy over the last few months (we have to find some way to pay the ridiculously high rent here in DC!). However, I'm hoping to pick back up the pace of our posts during 2011. I'm excited to dive into Georgetown's <a href="http://ssp.georgetown.edu/">Security Studies Program</a> starting this semester, which will demand much of my time, but also hopefully re-energize the analytical and critical thinking parts of my brain. I'll be concentrating primarily on Terrorism and Substate Violence, which fits quite nicely with the original focus of the site. In our attempts to increase the frequency of posts, you might notice a slight decrease in the length of our articles, but hopefully not in the quality.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjD0-3R8f79IQl3rZE1K0dvmo8XhwnctKfiIts_Y6e_aD4avYGH8B3KbW2Zb_A0Ly6saVAe5yLApIVS0d64t2oBtrvZkBjTykIBjtME0GiuWn8cPAcYBCjhIjSL2wY_cQ7g9LRqcGj9nbc/s1600/talhah.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjD0-3R8f79IQl3rZE1K0dvmo8XhwnctKfiIts_Y6e_aD4avYGH8B3KbW2Zb_A0Ly6saVAe5yLApIVS0d64t2oBtrvZkBjTykIBjtME0GiuWn8cPAcYBCjhIjSL2wY_cQ7g9LRqcGj9nbc/s400/talhah.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5568430749025266786" border="0" /></a><br />To start things off, I wanted to link to an excellent article/profile written by Chris Anzalone over at Foreign Policy (Chris also blogs at <a href="http://occident.blogspot.com/"><span style="font-style: italic;">Views from the Occident</span></a>, one of my daily reads). He profiles the <a href="http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/28/al_qaeda_loses_bridge_to_the_west">recently deceased Bekkay Harrach</a>, who was a key face for Al Qaeda in its European/German operations. Bekkay aka Abu Talha al Almani was reportedly killed in May 2010 leading a <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2010/05/19/uk-afghanistan-attack-idUKTRE64I0KV20100519">complex suicide attack on Bagram Airfield</a> in eastern Afghanistan.<br /><br />This is significant for many reasons, most of which Anzalone highlights expertly in his article, including:<br /><br /> • The rising levels of German citizens traveling to the AfPak region to participate in attacks; and the related implications of the ability for these individuals to acquire safe haven in Waziristan and NW Pakistan.<br /><br /> • The increasing ties between Al Qaeda Central, the Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) - who all reportedly collaborated for the attack that Harrach died in.<br /><br /> • The pattern of using "local" spokespersons on many As Sahab media productions (such as Adam Gadahn in many of the English-language videos), indicating the increasing Western-focused media campaign by AQ. This clearly has direct recruiting/operational implications as well.<br /><br />However, this report also prompted me to ask another question: why would AQ Central approve/allow such an important strategic figure to participate in what was essentially a tactical level operation? By many reports, Bekkay was one of the key inspirational and operational leaders of a group of German citizens who had traveled to the AfPak region and were serving as a forward hub for many European AQ members who wanted to participate in the jihad in Afghanistan. The only logical reason for Bekkay Harrach to lead the attack would be to gain additional followers and recruits after martyring himself. Essentially, he made the calculus that his death was more valuable to the organization than the work he was doing while still alive. Despite this possibility, I still have a hard time seeing the leadership of AQ Central being willing to lose such an important media/propaganda figure in such an attack. Anyone have other competing theories that might explain this anomaly?Pat Ryanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13937507399915070637noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-26378142127603088202010-12-08T17:37:00.008-05:002010-12-08T18:32:04.614-05:00Wikileak-er: Activist vs. Terrorist<span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">I realize that I am about to raise a thorny issue... Yet the sheer mass of events unfolding in the news in the last two weeks around the WikiLeaks release of DoS cables is difficult to ignore. Word of a pro-WikiLeaks cyber-attack started to filter into the media (</span><a style="font-family: trebuchet ms;" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703493504576007182352309942.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories">here</a><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"> and </span><a style="font-family: trebuchet ms;" href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/wikileaks">here</a><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">) showing a group of so-called "hacktivists" performing denial of service attacks on websites of companies that have broken contact with WikiLeaks over its recent actions. The attacks appear to be organized by a group of sympathizers who have been actively tweeting their intent, resulting in disabling attacks on MasterCard, Visa, PayPal and Amazon.com over. Interestingly, they are following on the heels of an anti-WikiLeaks attack on Nov 29th (see </span><a style="font-family: trebuchet ms;" href="http://technolog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/11/29/5544493-patriotic-hacker-claims-credit-for-wikileaks-attack">here</a><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">).</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Concurrently, the infamous founder of WikiLeaks is in some legal hot water in Europe over some interestingly ambiguous sexual assault charges coming from Sweden.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">So this is the situation, but what is the context? A foreign organization (WikiLeaks) has been actively disseminating USG secret documents after receiving them from sources internal to the USG.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">This is where it gets thorny. Throughout the on-line world there is intense forum and media discussion around a deceptively simple question...what do you call what WikiLeaks is doing? Is it journalism? Is it espionage? Is it, maybe even terrorism? The first amendment is often invoked and just as often countered by a security prerogative. And then you have the active interlocutors in the discussion (aka hacktivists), who contribute to the debate with their actions. Even the USG is painfully confused with Attorney General Holder claiming "intense investigations", Senators throwing around espionage, and the President mysteriously silent on the whole thing (</span><a style="font-family: trebuchet ms;" href="http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2010/12/08/assange_prosecution_theories/">example</a><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">). So round and round we go...what do we do with a foreign man who has taken it upon himself to damage American interests and has a rag-tag army of loosely organized, volunteer supporters?<br /><br />Wait...that is the question, isn't it?<br /><br />While it might sound as hyperbole, there is a real issue of precedent here. Precedent set not on hijacked aircraft but in electrons. For a decade we have heard of the emerging threat of cyber-terrorism and cyber-attack from China or Iran. For a decade we have speculated that it might come as an attack on the banking system, electrical grid, or even the DOD networks. Yet we are inexplicably confused about what to call WikiLeaks. Does good faith make one's actions less damaging to the interests of the country we live in? If Al Qaeda got a hold of a laptop with US secrets and released them for the world to see how evil America is would we not call that an act of terror? What exactly is the rule for defending American interests? Perhaps there are no rules and at the end of the day we are just winging it (as the Administration's frustrating-to-watch confusion seems to imply)?<br /><br />Those are the questions that come to mind. But allow me a moment to indulge in my own conclusions. There is no issue of freedom of speech here. There is no issue fairness or journalistic privilege here. In fact, there is no issue of due process here or justice. In Iraq the US Bill of Rights no more applies than the Iraqi Constitution in the US. Even Julian Assange himself notes the irony of charging an Australian with betraying the USA (</span><a style="font-family: trebuchet ms;" href="http://www.opednews.com/articles/JULIAN-ASSANGE-SPEAKS-OUT-by-Press-Release-101207-25.html">here</a><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">).</span> What we do have is an issue of a foreign citizen acting knowingly against US interests around the WORLD! Not even in just Iraq or Afghanistan or any other single issue. But an outright effort to discredit the United States. That is what we call in the US Army, an IO campaign (Information Operations). That is also what we would call a non-lethal weapon. So, why do we not insist that Australia attempt to control its citizen? To be frank, until today that would have been enough, in my opinion, as otherwise it would mean taking action against a citizen of an ally, an issue all its own. Yet with the hacktivists carrying out cyber-attacks, the WikiLeaks campaign has taken on a new dimension. After all, a cyber-attack is as much a weapon system in our arsenal as an IO campaign. Except enterprising hackers can do a lot of damage. So perhaps Julian Assange is a wayward citizen of an ally that needs to be brought in line. But the hacktivists are bona fide terrorists that need to be pursued as such if the US is serious about protecting its interests and not just winging it. After all, all of us that have put on a uniform and gone to war were doing just that, so it must be important...no?<br /><br />As to the issue of the press. There is none. WikiLeaks is foreign. The NYT has published what WikiLeaks published and no action is even contemplated against them. But then again, the NYT also shows us the occasional Al Qaeda motivational also. There is a broader issue than speech, and that is mens rea. The idea that WikiLeaks and the hacktivists are intending to harm US policy and at least for those of them who are not US persons there needs to be a swift, multi-avenue response. For those that are, we have plenty of hacker laws on the books. And for those that leak, they are the ones that take the risk of Espionage.<br /><br />A few thoughts..............so much more to say.......Sparapethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15145022421958154919noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-11367323626119027592010-12-07T16:34:00.001-05:002010-12-07T16:37:06.482-05:00Pearl Harbor DayToday is December 7th. For a historical reminder of the importance of this day read DP’s post from last year here. One of my favorite posts from our team. <br /><br />Also fully encourage you check out CS Monitor’s photo gallery titled, “Pearl Harbor remembered”; moving and motivating images.Josh McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-40730140762073259362010-12-02T19:13:00.004-05:002010-12-02T22:21:20.510-05:00Leadership Failures, Command Importance and Counseling. Seriously, all of that's in here.<span style="font-family:georgia;">Received </span><a href="http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=40147"><span style="font-family:georgia;">this article</span></a><span style="font-family:georgia;"> a couple hours ago, written by the famous “PowerPoint Ranter” COL(R) Lawrence Sellin, from a buddy. Good article overall, however the first couple paragraphs of this article are spot on and warrant recitation.</span>
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<br />“I think that there are serious problems with the culture of Army leadership: close-mindedness, careerism, an aversion to innovation or creativity born of the fallacy that everything can fit into a step-by-step procedure, and a task-oriented mindset that creates an atmosphere of anti-intellectualism...and not only those who can think, but those who possess the moral courage to stand up for the hard truths that their bosses are unwilling to accept. I think this is going to be especially important as we transition away from Iraq and Afghanistan and attempt to prepare for unknown future conflicts.
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<br />Indeed.
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<br />It has always seemed odd to me that the US military spends billions of dollars on service academies, war colleges, graduate programs and other forms of education in order to train people to think, but then places them inside a bureaucracy that prevents them from doing so.The step-by-step procedures and task orientation methods like the Military Decision Making Process can create a mindless group mentality that inhibits discussion and stifles innovation. Although intelligent people may be embedded within such a system, all can be dragged downstream by the same aimless bureaucratic current.”
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<br />Amen.
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<br />What specifically struck me was the comment from the first paragraph, written by a Lieutenant, was the aversion to innovation and creativity. I don’t think a single person in the Army will tell you they haven’t seen this. It takes a good Commander to change this mindset and atmosphere; and one who cares about nothing more than winning each and every day while bringing his men home safe. <em>*Eagle 6, if you’re reading this (which you better be; otherwise I think we’re down to only our mothers and significant others reading this blog), I really miss being in your unit. We didn’t always see eye to eye but at least you let mine, or Eagle 2, or Eagle 3A’s voices be heard and honestly assessed our opinions and recommendations. I wish I saw more of that these days. Innovation was a strong suit of the entire Battalion under your leadership.*</em> This is unfortunately largely lacking and undoubtedly one reason we struggled in Iraq for so long and continue to struggle in Afghanistan today.
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<br />Enough about PowerPoint and COL Sellin’s distaste for it has already been written. Instead, I finally have a way to recommend a book I read last spring in Iraq titled, “A Question of Command”. If you haven’t read it, go </span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Question-Command-Counterinsurgency-Library-Military/dp/0300168071/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1291330780&sr=8-1"><span style="font-family:georgia;">buy it now</span></a><span style="font-family:georgia;"> and put away the latest Harry Potter or Twilight book that you’re currently pouring your heart and soul into. Mark Moyar’s thesis is outstanding; it’s well written with good case studies and really should be somewhere on the CMH Recommended Reading List. If you haven’t already, read it now. Moyar provides excellent historical reference on the importance of leadership in a counterinsurgency. COL Sellin’s article accurately spells out what is lacking and what we’re actually dealing with for the most part. Before I go any further, I’m not saying it’s like this everywhere, just most places.
<br />Now on to my somewhat connected but not really rant of the week.</span>
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<br />At the Battalion and below level, an organization is really only as good as its Commander. You can have bad Majors; a bad staff, bad Company Commanders even, but what keeps it all together and moving forward is that dynamic Battalion Commander. You can have the best Companies and staff in the Army and it’s all for naught if your Battalion Commander is lacking. As young Lieutenants and surly (and frequently disgruntled) Captains we are constantly reminded of a leaders’ responsibility to counsel subordinates, Officer and Non Commissioned Officer alike. Counseling is a very important part of the military culture. If you think I’m wrong ask a Commander or First Sergeant the importance of counseling when it comes to chaptering a Soldier out of the Army. Paramount. After nearly five years on various Battalion staffs, I have become increasingly concerned with the lack of counseling of Junior Officers. I say this strictly to highlight that it’s not an isolated incident but is endemic across the Army. In this almost half decade of toiling (read: rotting) away on staff I have received one counseling that came in the form of an Officer Evaluation Report (OER) counseling from my senior rater for an annual OER. These are great when utilized along with the other theoretically mandatory counseling’s. At the bottom of the first page of an OER is Part IV, Block d: Officer Development (requiring a mandatory yes or no entry for CPTs, LTs, CW2s and WO1s. It asks a simple question, “Were developmental tasks recorded on DA Form 67-9-1a and quarterly follow-up counselings conducted?” Yes that misspelling is straight from the form. TFor those of you not in the Army a DA Form 67-9-1a is an OER Support Form where we essentially highlight all the things we were supposed to do, all the things we did throughout the rating period, what special skills we have that better the Army and what jobs we’d like to have in the future. But before you get to the “pat yourself on the back” portion of the OERSF, there’s Part III which is verification of face-to-face discussion, i.e. counseling sessions with your rater (boss). There are spaces for an initial counseling and three periodic (quarterly) follow-up counseling sessions. This, unfortunately, is largely a hand jam as counseling sessions are rarely conducted for Company Grade Officers. This constitutes an absolute failure by our leaders in developing the next generation of leaders and sets a dangerous precedent for the perpetuation of poor leadership, laziness, non-confrontation, whatever you want to call it. I call it an epic failure and I believe it’s one of the many reasons droves of young Officers eligible to REFRAD continue to submit their paperwork. Frustration can come quickly if you have no idea what’s expected of you in a new job, or you just have a scatter-brained boss whose priorities for you continue to morph and change on a daily basis. Developmental counseling’s lead to far less confusion and clearly delineate what is expected of that young Officer, Sergeant or Soldier. Besides that, it’s a disservice not only to the young Officer or Sergeant, but also to his subordinates and it could contribute to the stunting of his professional development. We’re all busy but it does not relieve us of our responsibilities as a leader or supervisor.
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<br />Long story short, if you haven’t read Moyar’s book, you need to. And for Christ’s sake, if you are behind in your counseling’s, get on it.
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<br />Josh McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-46113377139050643722010-11-28T14:02:00.000-05:002010-11-28T14:03:45.967-05:00Beaver Nation and (Unrelated) Cyber Attack<span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">Quite a few developments over the Thanksgiving weekend. Unfortunately not a ton of time to delve into them as I have a long, snowy drive back to Western Washington ahead of me. </span><br /><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;"><br />Tip of the hat to the FBI for their work in </span><a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/11/28/national/main7096810.shtml"><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">Portland</span></a><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">. Some are calling it entrapment but the kid was motivated. Remember </span><a href="http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/africa/101104/al-shabaab-somalia-al-qaeda-united-nations"><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">Minneapolis</span></a><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">? Another reminder that the Somali diaspora is probably the most at-risk segment of our population for radicalization. The fire this morning at the Salman al-Farisi Islamic Center was an interesting development; I’m pretty stoked to learn who is responsible for this vengeful act. And finally, the kid’s (or was now that he’s behind bars) a </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Osman_Mohamud"><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">Beaver</span></a><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">, so his sanity should have been checked prior to enrollment. Just sayin. </span><br /><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;"><br />WikiLeaks. Lots of articles and analysis of the information being released this round; Starbuck’s is definitely worth a </span><a href="http://wingsoveriraq.blogspot.com/2010/11/this-is-going-to-revolutionize-world.html"><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">read</span></a><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;"> most for his insightful analysis linking the State Department to the movie Mean Girls (which is likely giving the State Dept. too much credit). All I can add is that I fully support any </span><a href="http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/11/28/wikileaks.attack/?hpt=T1"><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">attack</span></a><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;"> on the WikiLeaks site. I can’t believe it took us this long to respond (assuming it was us that is). </span>Josh McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-60349668315390193902010-11-04T00:26:00.003-04:002010-11-15T17:29:08.515-05:00Ibrahim Hassan al Asiri<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu1mFdzVxFKyXPbw6UAad1VKLAjQLbIZKLXhyphenhyphenD0iJkYxaoXI4O3xBKiuZVLsc0iGl9zAA4Ebys_xMrMFkf40ySl8ZAFDb-GyesM0c9I_oquYpOd4sIRDuniMm26jJXp4imB78aIFR-LEY/s1600/al_Asiri248.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 248px; height: 187px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu1mFdzVxFKyXPbw6UAad1VKLAjQLbIZKLXhyphenhyphenD0iJkYxaoXI4O3xBKiuZVLsc0iGl9zAA4Ebys_xMrMFkf40ySl8ZAFDb-GyesM0c9I_oquYpOd4sIRDuniMm26jJXp4imB78aIFR-LEY/s400/al_Asiri248.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5535546501040940370" border="0" /></a><span style="font-style: italic;">Ibrahim Hassan al Asiri, assessed to be the lead explosives expert for AQAP.<br /></span></div><br />In the wake of the recent <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/31/world/31terror.html">interdiction of two potential "printer-bombs"</a> on flights bound for the US, I wanted to briefly call attention to <a href="http://al-sahwa.blogspot.com/2010/02/aqaps-expert-bombmaker-ibrahim-hassan.html">a post I wrote back in February</a> about Ibrahim Hassan al Asiri - who I assessed at the time to be the top explosives expert for AQAP. Recent comments from high-level government and intelligence officials seem to confirm my original assessment that he is in fact serving in this role and likely has been since as early summer 2009 (when his <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/06/AR2009100603711.html">brother Abdullah blew himself up</a> in a failed attempt to kill Saudi Prince Muhammad bin Nayef). For an excellent updated biography of Ibrahim al Asiri, check out <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11662143">this story from the BBC</a>.<br /><br />The question I have to ask is why we haven't used our extensive HUMINT network (courtesy of the Saudis - who by the way <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/01/cargo-plane-bomb-plot-tipoff">tipped us on this latest planned attack</a>) and SIGINT network to kill/capture this guy over the course of the last year? Although the interdiction of the explosives was a success story, if we had done our job more effectively in the first place, we could have potentially removed the key individual from the network who possessed enough knowledge to construct these devices in the first place.Pat Ryanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13937507399915070637noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-7203161669236722742010-11-01T23:49:00.001-04:002010-11-01T23:50:40.954-04:00PM Maliki Is My Hero<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Not sure how I missed this since it was in my inbox courtesy of Google Alerts, but Maliki having a well trained direct action force at his fingertips is probably not a bad thing. I’ve seen the Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF) operate on multiple deployments and they truly have developed into an impressive CT force. The fact that Maliki wants them at his personal finger tips is umm… well, a little disturbing. Or maybe I’m just being paranoid. Read more here, <a href="http://bit.ly/dle4SX">http://bit.ly/dle4SX</a> .</span></span></p>Josh McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-12591191909537083922010-10-23T12:00:00.000-04:002010-10-23T12:48:43.568-04:00The Growing "Re-Insurgency" in Iraq<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho-iEqOH2xh5RqQOiwtutkvTv3t49O42h6xuqJxpcgKLNm_gZZANUei6nnuxoF_dcutOlYZuQbmZrTivlHoqoA2zRq0-ce_CX5l6v2qmMm7Jmo88uccuxKpMfU15afwAVi-XMTpWviKU8/s1600/Screen+shot+2010-10-23+at+12.46.44+PM.png"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho-iEqOH2xh5RqQOiwtutkvTv3t49O42h6xuqJxpcgKLNm_gZZANUei6nnuxoF_dcutOlYZuQbmZrTivlHoqoA2zRq0-ce_CX5l6v2qmMm7Jmo88uccuxKpMfU15afwAVi-XMTpWviKU8/s400/Screen+shot+2010-10-23+at+12.46.44+PM.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5531284119758350178" border="0" /></a><br />I continue to be disturbed by reports from Iraq that indicate the beginnings of a Sunni "re-insurgency." One of the op-eds in Wednesday's <span style="font-style: italic;">New York Times</span> does a good job of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/20/opinion/20wed1.html">summarizing the two primary drivers</a> of instability:<br /><br />1) The movement toward formation of a unity government that will essentially be controlled by Shia interests - leaving the Sunnis with little to no representation. The recent announcement of an alliance of convenience between the Maliki's party and Sadr's party puts the Shia within striking distance of a majority in parliament, with the Kurds essentially serving as kingmakers. The Kurds are likely to join the alliance (after extracting as many concessions as they can), leaving Allawi (and the majority of the Sunnis who voted for him) hanging out to dry. Thus, in the eyes of the Sunni populace, even though their candidate won more seats than any other candidate in the <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/iraq/elections/index.html">March 7 elections</a>, they are somehow being almost completely disenfranchised. This doesn't exactly incentivize participation by the Sunnis at any level (local, provincial, national) and fuels growing feelings of disappointment, resentment, and anger amongst the Sunni populace.<br /><br />2) The failure to effectively transition members of the <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/iraq/awakening_movement/index.html?scp=1&sq=iraq%20awakening&st=cse">Awakening ("Sahwa") movement</a> into follow-on jobs (whether within the ISF or other government-provided jobs) - creating a cadre of military-trained, unemployed, and disaffected Sunni males. As <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/world/middleeast/17awakening.html">this exceptional article</a> in the <span style="font-style: italic;">New York Times</span> points out, this creates the ideal conditions for AQI to recruit these young men back into the insurgency. As the article points out:<br /><p> <span style="font-style: italic;">"Although there are no firm figures, security and political officials say hundreds of the well-disciplined fighters — many of whom have gained extensive knowledge about the American military — appear to have rejoined AQI. Beyond that, officials say that even many of the Awakening fighters still on the Iraqi government payroll, possibly thousands of them, covertly aid the insurgency... </span></p><span style="font-style: italic;">As of July, less than half — 41,000 of 94,000 — of the Awakening’s fighters had been offered jobs by the government, according to the Department of Defense. </span><span style="font-style: italic;"> Much of the employment has been temporary and involved menial labor. The government has hired only about 9,000 Awakening members for the security forces, with officials blaming budget constraints." </span><br /><br />The case of Nadim al Jabouri, one of the former Awakening leaders <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/world/middleeast/17awakening.html">quoted in the article</a>, illustrates the ongoing efforts of Maliki's government to weaken the Awakening movement (and thereby the larger Sunni bloc) across the country. Nadim, born and raised in the Sunni stronghold of Duluiyah in Salahadin Province, was a top leader within the AQI organization from 2003-2006 - serving as both a military and media emir at various points during those years. During my first deployment to Iraq in 2005-06, Mullah Nadim (as he was known at the time) was my Battalion's #1 high-value target (HVT) - driven by a massive amount of confirmed intelligence reporting linking him to attacks against US and Iraqi forces across the province. Nadim had been the imam of the Khulafa Mosque in Duluiyah, using his street cred as a self-proclaimed imam to rally the local Sunni youth (and coerce the Jabouri tribal leadership) into fighting both US forces and the Shia-dominated Iraqi Army units in the area.<br /><br />When I returned to Iraq at the end of 2007, Nadim had essentially switched sides and was the leader of the local Sahwa group - actually living and working from an office on an American base. Although this was initially a tough pill for me to swallow, I recognized the need to work with historically unsavory characters to provide some measure of security. Unsurprisingly, attacks, violence, and intimidation dropped dramatically in the area as Nadim's group of 200-300 Awakening members continued to receive pay from US forces and then for a time from the national government. However, as time progressed and US forces began to shift their attention to other matters and the impending drawdown of troops; and when the Shia-dominated national government took over responsibility for maintaining the Awakening program (on 01 Apr 09), they began a deliberate campaign to weaken and dismantle Awakening groups across the country.<br /><br />In April of 2009, Nadim was the target of a <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2009/may/04/world/fg-iraq-arrest4">massive suicide vest attack</a>, which missed harming him but ended up killing five locals and wounding 18, including one of Nadim's brothers. The attack was likely the work of AQI leaders who were upset that Nadim had switched sides and was now helping US and Iraqi forces target AQI. Only one month later on May 4, Nadim and two of his brothers were <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8031867.stm">arrested by Iraqi Security Forces</a> in what was a fairly blatant, sectarian attempt to limit the growing strength of Nadim's group - and to check his growing political power (he was a leading local candidate for provincial/national office within a small Sunni party). Within two months time, Nadim had been targeted by both sides (AQI and the Iraqi government) and with US forces drawing down, he had few people to turn to for support and protection.<br /><br />Events like this are occurring all across Iraq as Awakening leaders and fighters are arrested, intimidated, and left with no pay. This situation has created a group of trained, armed men who are now extremely disillusioned and angry with the government and left with little or no options for redress. As Nadim explained in the most <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/world/middleeast/17awakening.html?pagewanted=1">recent <span style="font-style: italic;">New York Times</span> article</a>:<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br />“The Awakening doesn’t know what the future holds because it is not clear what the government intends for them...At this point, Awakening members have two options: Stay with the government, which would be a threat to their lives, or help Al Qaeda by being a double agents."</span><br /><br />The situation is not likely to improve as the Shia consolidate power in Baghdad and continue to undercut any efforts by the Sunni to secure themselves (and their towns) or gain more power through legitimate political means. In my opinion, we are seeing a perfect storm come together that gives Sunnis few options but to turn back towards an insurgency against the Shia-controlled national government. Unless the Iraqis (hopefully with US help) can figure out a more effective power-sharing deal at the national level and determine a better system to reintegrate Awakening fighters and leaders back into the workforce in a fair and legitimate manner, the situation could spiral out of control quickly and move towards an all-out civil war.Pat Ryanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13937507399915070637noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-30623831712239599292010-10-20T14:48:00.001-04:002010-10-20T14:55:35.118-04:00Mobile Banking in Somalia<span style="font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:85%;">Something tells me this has more to do with HSM getting their slice of the pie than how un-Islamic it is. Anyone have more particulars on this trend? I know it’s being used in Iraq and Afghanistan, and I’d assume many other Muslim nations. Tip of the hat to Bill Roggio at </span><a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/"><span style="font-size:85%;">LWJ</span></a><span style="font-size:85%;"> for finding this </span><a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201010200470.html"><span style="font-size:85%;">morsel</span></a><span style="font-size:85%;">. </span></span>Josh McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-4071414501324259662010-09-16T01:25:00.002-04:002010-09-16T01:33:59.852-04:00AAFES Bans Video Game... Possible Punishment For Owning Medal of Honor?<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Somehow this little gem from last week slipped past me. Last week AAFES (Army & Air Force Exchange Service, the military’s version of Walmart) announced it was </span></span><a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129731914&ft=1&f=1001"><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">banning</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"> the new Medal of Honor video game set to be released next month from its stores and GameStop’s operating on Army and Air Force bases. Honestly, I’m really not into video games. But anyone that’s spent more than five minutes around a Soldier in the US Army will realize that the overwhelming majority of our Soldiers are. But again, taken at face value the banning of selling this game by AAFES is no big deal. Most Soldiers who want this game will just go off base to purchase the game. Another good link to see how Soldiers feel about this decision by AAFES is available </span></span><a href="http://www.1up.com/news/medal-honor-banned-army-air"><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">here</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Again, not a “gamer”. And I realize that saying this is no big deal opens me up to all sorts of criticism. But I’ll go ahead and say it anyway, this is not a big deal. I have lost friends and close comrades overseas. The game is set during early 2002’s </span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Anaconda"><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Operation Anaconda</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">; and while OEF continues to trudge on, how is this any different than a video game of WWII, Korea, Vietnam or any other war game or shooter? And anyone stupid enough to think that a video game is really like actual combat is just that, stupid. I am yet to meet a single Soldier who joined the Army because combat looked pretty cool in a video game. Not saying it hasn’t happened, but I am yet to meet this person. </span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Here’s where it may get better. Today a good friend (who is very well connected) told me that certain bases will make having this game on base a punishable offense. Not like, you have to rake some leaves or mow some grass kind of punishment, but paperwork in your permanent file kind of punishment. I have no idea whether this is actually going to happen, but if anyone else has heard about this, feel free to share. I’ll provide updates to this post if anything changes here.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Also, if playing a video game as Team Muj is insensitive, reprehensible, etc., would the Army also be right to ban training like </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3RET9yAOGY">Mirror Image</a> because you learn how to think and act like a terrorist/insurgent/Mujahideen</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">? </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">What do you think?</span></span></p>Josh McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-55512989459847102642010-09-02T04:28:00.001-04:002010-09-02T04:30:22.928-04:00Operation New Dawn or Yet Another Dawn?<p><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">First off, it’s great to be back in the US. After nearly three years of deployed time in Iraq, I’m fairly confident this was my last trip there. Obviously, after devoting the better part of my 20’s to either prepping for a deployment, or actually deployed, I have a fairly vested interest in Iraq; and also the American perception of our efforts in Iraq. Over the last week, there has been a tremendous amount of coverage regarding the formal end of combat operations in Iraq yesterday, 31 August. Yesterday Operation Iraqi Freedom ended and today brought the first day of Operation New Dawn and a new USFI Commanding General. Having worked extensively with the Diyala Provincial Reconstruction Team, I gained a solid and comprehensive understanding of the way ahead in Iraq. For the most part, I am a fan; it’s not perfect but I am just happy the State Department is finally taking the lead in Iraq. </span></p><p><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">Back to the topic at hand, the major headline in the news has been the end of formal combat operations and a transition to Stability Ops today (</span><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575464990053821252.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsSecond"><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">here</span></a><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">, </span><a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0831/Maliki-marks-end-of-US-Iraq-combat-operations"><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">here</span></a><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;"> and </span><a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38933239/ns/politics-white_house"><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">here</span></a><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">). The reality though is that we really transitioned to stability ops as a force preemptively in December 2008 when conventional forces were bound to the </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S.%E2%80%93Iraq_Status_of_Forces_Agreement"><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">Status of Forces Agreement</span></a><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;"> (SOFA). After SOFA, our ability to execute offensive operations was severely hampered by the Iraqi Security Forces, and pretty much the entire Government of Iraq (GoI). The post-SOFA reality for US Forces is that it has become more dangerous to operate with each passing day as our intelligence assets are pulled further away from its most important asset, the host nation population. Without good Human Intelligence the rest of our “int’s” become weaker and our ground forces suffer exponentially. </span></p><p><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">The other significant news last week was 4-2 Stryker Brigade Combat Team’s execution of the </span><a href="http://www.army.mil/-news/2010/08/19/43907-last-combat-troops-leave-iraq/"><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">last “combat patrol”</span></a><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;"> in Iraq, which in all reality was a ground movement of their Strykers to Kuwait for movement back to the States. 4-2 SBCT was the last Brigade Combat Team in Iraq; now all that’s left are Advise and Assist Brigades. I love a good re-branding. A bunch of extra Field Grade Officers added to a Brigade Combat Team does not significantly alter the fact that these Brigades are still combat formations. </span></p><p><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">The reality: next week will be the same as last week for those living and serving in Iraq. There is still a lot of work to be done in Iraq. There is a significant ongoing SOF counter-terror mission that should not cease any time soon; evidence can be seen </span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/26/world/middleeast/26iraq.html"><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">here</span></a><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;">. A new Iraqi government is nowhere in sight. Corruption and graft continue to plague the country. There is work to be done but we need a willing partner moving ahead, something that has been missing in Iraq for a long time. </span></p>Josh McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-72278629855344669522010-09-01T10:09:00.003-04:002010-09-01T10:13:30.990-04:00Misunderstanding Sets Back US-Pak Relations <meta name="Title" content=""> <meta name="Keywords" content=""> <meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"> <meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"> <meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 2008"> <meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 2008"> <link rel="File-List" href="file://localhost/Users/btlaptop48/Library/Caches/TemporaryItems/msoclip/0/clip_filelist.xml"> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:documentproperties> <o:template>Normal.dotm</o:Template> <o:revision>0</o:Revision> <o:totaltime>0</o:TotalTime> <o:pages>1</o:Pages> <o:words>130</o:Words> <o:characters>743</o:Characters> <o:company>Berico Technologies</o:Company> <o:lines>6</o:Lines> <o:paragraphs>1</o:Paragraphs> <o:characterswithspaces>912</o:CharactersWithSpaces> <o:version>12.0</o:Version> </o:DocumentProperties> <o:officedocumentsettings> <o:allowpng/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves>false</w:TrackMoves> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:drawinggridhorizontalspacing>18 pt</w:DrawingGridHorizontalSpacing> <w:drawinggridverticalspacing>18 pt</w:DrawingGridVerticalSpacing> <w:displayhorizontaldrawinggridevery>0</w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery> <w:displayverticaldrawinggridevery>0</w:DisplayVerticalDrawingGridEvery> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> <w:dontautofitconstrainedtables/> <w:dontvertalignintxbx/> </w:Compatibility> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="276"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--> <style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:Times; 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margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style> <!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family:Times; mso-fareast-font-family:Times; mso-hansi-font-family:Times; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";} </style> <![endif]--> <!--StartFragment--> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">I had to share this amusing (but unfortunate) story involving the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/31/AR2010083106133.html">temporary detention and interrogation of a delegation of Pakistani officers</a> at Dulles yesterday. Sadly, the incident highlights the fact that a misunderstanding and poor decision-making by a flight attendant and security guards can set back relations between two countries. Despite the billions of dollars we donate annually in aid to Pakistan (particularly in the wake of the recent flooding), this incident is being <a href="http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/front-page/06-military-officers-cancel-trip-after-humiliation-at-us-airport-190-rs-08">viewed within Pakistan</a> as a major "humiliation" that resulted from the "paranoia permeating US airports."
<br />
<br />From the <i style="">Washington Post:</i> <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p style="font-style: italic;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="">"A delegation of senior Pakistani military officials visiting the United States for a major defense conference headed home in protest Tuesday night after they said they were interrogated and rudely treated by security officials at Dulles International Airport. </span></p> <p style="font-style: italic;" class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p style="font-style: italic;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="">The nine-member group of high-ranking Pakistani officers boarded United Airlines Flight 727 from Washington to Tampa late Sunday but were pulled off the plane after one of them "made a comment to a flight attendant," said Mike Trevino, a United spokesman. </span></p> <p style="font-style: italic;" class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p style="font-style: italic;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="">United did not provide details, but Pakistani officials said the remark came from a general in the delegation who - weary of a long day of travel that began in Islamabad - said, "I hope this is my last flight," or words to that effect.
<br /></span></p> <p style="font-style: italic;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="">That sparked a call to Dulles law enforcement officials, who detained the delegation for 2.5 hours and refused to allow the officials to contact their embassy or the U.S. military officials who had invited them to visit, according to a Pakistani military official who spoke on condition of anonymity. </span></p> <p style="font-style: italic;" class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p style="font-style: italic;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="">The Pakistanis were finally released after police at Dulles determined they did not pose a threat. But instead of proceeding to Tampa, the delegation was ordered to return to Pakistan by their military superiors in Islamabad, in protest of their treatment, the Pakistani official said, adding that they were "verbally abused." The group of officers spent the next 48 hours in Washington, waiting for the next available flight home, and were scheduled to depart the United States on Tuesday evening. </span></p> <p style="font-style: italic;" class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p style="font-style: italic;" class="MsoNormal">The Pakistani officers were originally en route to U.S. Central Command headquarters in Tampa to attend the annual conference of the U.S.-Pakistan Military Consultative Committee, said Maj. David Nevers, a Central Command spokesman. He said Centcom officials hoped to reschedule the conference."</p> <!--EndFragment--> <span style="font-style: italic;font-family:Times;font-size:10pt;" ><span style="font-size:100%;"></span><o:p></o:p></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0.1pt 0in;"> <!--EndFragment-->
<br /><span style=";font-family:Times;font-size:10pt;" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <!--EndFragment--> Pat Ryanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13937507399915070637noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-36110161890705311972010-08-30T16:17:00.002-04:002010-08-30T16:39:34.466-04:00Myopia: A commentary on military vogue<meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 12"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 12"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5C551612%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><link rel="themeData" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5C551612%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_themedata.thmx"><link rel="colorSchemeMapping" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5C551612%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_colorschememapping.xml"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> 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margin-bottom:10.0pt; margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} p.MsoBodyText, li.MsoBodyText, div.MsoBodyText {mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-link:"Body Text Char"; margin-top:0in; margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:6.0pt; margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} span.BodyTextChar {mso-style-name:"Body Text Char"; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-locked:yes; mso-style-link:"Body Text";} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} .MsoPapDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; margin-bottom:10.0pt; line-height:115%;} @page WordSection1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.WordSection1 {page:WordSection1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal">Recently, a string of articles on the milblog www.smallwarsjournal.com (note 1) has unintentionally highlighted a weak-link in the philosophical chains that string together the concepts and skills of the military profession.<span style=""> </span>At first glance the debate appears to be a parochial, all be it professional, dispute centered on the future of the Armor Corps of the US Army and broadly on the state of the Army's high-intensity combat skills.<span style=""> </span>Written mostly by career Army combat arms officers (mostly teaching at West Point, incidentally) the debate at first glance resembles the spirit of the rather intense branch infighting that characterized the US Army of the 1930's with the introduction of the battle tank (note 2).<span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">The tank of old threatened the primacy of the Infantry and sides were picked.<span style=""> </span>There were conservative voices and liberal 'revolutionary' voices.<span style=""> </span>There were also the moderate ones who seem to have won and integrated both for 60 yrs without accepting the absolutisms of the poles.<span style=""> </span>The focus now is COIN, supposedly an innovation, and the effect it has on the high-intensity, heavy weapons tactical skills in the Army.<span style=""> </span>Again, one side says COIN has atrophied them all but irrevocably while the other insists that the new environment is something to be embraced unequivocally as the status quo.<span style=""> </span>And again, there are the moderates, like LTC Thomas J Weiss (note 3) that suggest a middle ground, a synthesis, is the way to go.<span style=""> </span>Both debates seem to deal with a "newness" that was/is at once threatening the old order and yet could be on the cusp of revolution.<span style=""> </span>However, the otherwise praiseworthy middle-ground article by LTC Weiss betrays the philosophical fallacy that underpins the whole debate by asking the question "...how best do we organize and train our forces for future conflict?"<span style=""> </span>This assumption, that there is something new that is unparalleled and unknown.<span style=""> </span>Something that is "future" is different than the "past" in some fundamental and as-yet unappreciated way, is atrophying something far more critical than a tactical skill set, the profession of arms.<span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">In many ways it is the same mental trend that gripped the Officer Corps post-Vietnam and produced the likes of the Powell Doctrine.<span style=""> </span>The idea that first, America in the future will have a say in the types of conflicts it fights and secondly (and most dangerously) that America has the ability to predict those conflicts with a certainty that will define its capabilities.<span style=""> </span>In the past it led to the insistence that America will not be involved in low-intensity conflict (LIC) or insurgent actions, therefore we will only develop heavy forces.<span style=""> </span>Indeed, that focus has allowed us to steam roll Iraq, twice.<span style=""> </span>Instantly occupy Panama and Granada and otherwise sail and fly around the globe seemingly at will.<span style=""> </span>On the other hand, that focus brought us the absolute misery of Iraq 2004-2009.<span style=""> </span>We invented terminology like COIN and Asymmetrical Warfare and decided that we must win hearts-and-minds and decided that there was a spectrum to warfare to cope with our glaring deficiencies in occupation skill sets and that this is a "new, modern, future war".<span style=""> </span>Yet all this simply betrayed the multi-generational failure of our Officer Corps to understand our profession and to confirm that it has not learned the lesson well at all.<span style=""> </span><o:p>
<br /></o:p></p> <p class="MsoBodyText">The Roman army spent the better part of a millennium patrolling and administering the Empire, not fighting set piece battles.<span style=""> </span>But when it could no longer mobilize for those battles it lost the Empire.<span style=""> </span>Likewise, the British Empire mostly spent its time floating about and dealing with this insurgency or that, with a major war every few decades that required massive armies.<span style=""> </span>History goes on ad nauseam with examples that show that perhaps 9 out of 10 man-years of the professional civilized soldier are spent patrolling and dealing with rebellion.<span style=""> </span>In other words, LIC is the historical norm.<span style=""> </span>The slight problem with that understanding however, is magnitude.<span style=""> </span>While it may be that the US Army conducting LIC is actually the historical norm (Indian-Wars, Philippines, etc) when it is waged poorly it usually drains coffers and kills men.<span style=""> </span>But in the end the failure rarely has any immediate dramatic impact on the civilization deploying those men. <span style=""> </span>Fail in high-intensity, however, and you may well lose everything (a dynamic illustrated eloquently by LTC Weiss in his concluding statements).<span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoBodyText">Unlike the battle tank, which revolutionized warfare technologically, COIN is not an innovation but a technique.<span style=""> </span>Read Machiavelli for examples.<span style=""> </span>COIN is a technique that is available to every Prince, President and Viceroy to deal with a rebellion; one of several techniques and for our liberal, enlightened dispositions perhaps the most palatable.<span style=""> </span>Pacification and more specifically control of the population is its ultimate goal however.<span style=""> </span>If you are resorting to COIN it means you already have a rebellion, you already lost control.<span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">The medical profession is expected to regard human biological welfare in all spheres to better the health of the people.<span style=""> </span>The legal profession is expected to regard the interpretation and application of the law in all spheres to manage the formal relationships of the people.<span style=""> </span>The military profession is and must be expected to understand and apply the “full spectrum of operations” to enforce the interests of the state it serves and this means being able to do so everywhere on the spectrum.<span style=""> </span>A medical system that trains orthopedic surgeons while presuming cardiologists and neurologists to be not terribly necessary because of frequency of case types would reset 1000 broken bones but fail to save 100 lives.<span style=""> </span>Would the profession be lacking in that case?<span style=""> </span>I think so. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">History is full of high intensity and low intensity conflict.<span style=""> </span>To presume that the next 20 yrs will be fundamentally different than the last 5,000 in terms of human behavior is the height of hubris.<span style=""> </span>Alexander II of Russia was assassinated by a secondary IED in 1881 after the primary failed.<span style=""> </span>The Algerian rebellion used IEDs and civilian population attacks to drive out the French.<span style=""> </span>The US pacified a culturally alien and hateful Japan after WWII.<span style=""> </span>USAMGIK secured and westernized a culturally alien South Korea (including putting down internal, non communist, rebellions as necessary) while the Chinese tried the same in the North. And a resurgent German Army energized by a hypercharismatic leader started a world war and fought for 5 yrs against an alliance led by 3 titanic nations to the amazement of all involved.<span style=""> </span>A professional Officer Corps would have recognized and internalized those lessons in order to fulfill its professional obligation to its society.<span style=""> </span><span style="">Yet, these examples that are snow flakes on the iceberg of history are not taught to the Corps as a competency either pre-commissioning or post. Instead these issues are left to the musings of CGSC Colonels and academics, while the Lieutenants and Captains rarely go beyond learning how to react to running over a mine in predeployment, all the while being told that they are the ground pounding leaders of COIN. </span><span style=""> </span><span style=""> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
<br /><span style=""></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">Notes:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">Note 1:
<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2010/04/the-death-of-the-armor-corps/; http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/447-smith.pdf; http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2010/08/mostly-dead/</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">Note 2:
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mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif";">The Challenge of Change: Military Institutions and New Realities, 1918-1941. <span style=""> </span>Harold R. Winton (Editor), David R. Mets (Editor)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
<br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif";"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif";">Note 3:
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LtCol Thomas J. Weiss - Mostly Dead: Continuing the Discussion on the Reported Death of the Armor Corps, 26 Aug 2010</span></p> Sparapethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15145022421958154919noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-39632340631751800012010-08-18T14:00:00.000-04:002010-08-18T17:52:06.944-04:00Greed and Grievance in Kandahar<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu2YlV2y192IfAert6bp5fgewmUYk-ARmO09Ln1TxXRCiIhN3pffJcJgwz_DQdgj1GX6m2mLRYeMD3fgof8HD-V6-Kw1FToczQJi29b1w7ruPvi2YzGdvobz_51YgmiONC1vsP6EevYt4/s1600/kandahar-city-map.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 322px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu2YlV2y192IfAert6bp5fgewmUYk-ARmO09Ln1TxXRCiIhN3pffJcJgwz_DQdgj1GX6m2mLRYeMD3fgof8HD-V6-Kw1FToczQJi29b1w7ruPvi2YzGdvobz_51YgmiONC1vsP6EevYt4/s400/kandahar-city-map.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5506768255616252930" border="0" /></a><br />As the last US elements of the "Kandahar surge" assume battlespace in and around the city, we are at a critical juncture in the ISAF effort to establish what GEN Petraeus describes as an <a href="http://www.isaf.nato.int/article/isaf-releases/general-petraeus-meet-the-press-transcript-august-15-2010.html">"oil spot"</a> around Kandahar City and its environs. The daunting task of establishing this zone of security, governance, and prosperity falls on a combination of mostly US and Canadian soldiers and officers (from 2/101 ABN, 1/4 ID, and TF Kandahar). Rajiv Chandrasekaran's <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/02/AR2010080205235_pf.html">recent article in the Wash Post</a> does an excellent job of highlighting the challenges that face these forces, drawing a comparison between the US efforts in Baghdad in 2006-07 and the ongoing efforts in Kandahar.<br /><br />Ultimately, though, he concludes (accurately) that the dynamics at play in Kandahar are vastly different than they were in Baghdad. ISAF forces in Kandahar must convince a predominately Pashtun, Sunni populace (vice a split Sunni-Shia populace in Baghdad) that the "legitimate" elected government (and security forces) can provide for them and protect them from the murder and intimidation campaign of the Taliban. They must also convince them that this government (led by the figurehead Governor Tooryalai Wesa, the powerful and corrupt Provincial Council Chairman Ahmed Wali Karzai, and the competent but under-resourced Mayor Gulam Haider Hamidi) has the best interests of the local populace at heart - and are not using their positions to advance their personal/financial interests. This will not be an easy sell.<br /><br />As we examine the situation in Kandahar, I believe it's extremely useful to consider the "greed vs. grievance" model that Tony Corn outlines in his recent <span style="font-style: italic;">Small Wars Journal</span> article - <a href="http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2010/07/coin-in-absurdistan/">"COIN in Absurdistan."</a> Corn argues that the grievance-based COIN model that applied in Iraq cannot be accurately applied in Afghanistan in 2010. Instead, he claims that:<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">"Today, a good case could be made that the political divergences (Grievance) that once existed between the main protagonists (Kabul officials, regional warlords, Taliban of all stripes, not to mention Pakistani officials) have taken a backseat, and that a convergence of sorts has begun to emerge on a shared economic objective (Greed): milking the American cow for all it’s worth, and for as long as possible."</span><br /><br />Most of the arguments and policy/strategy discussions we hear related to Afghanistan seem to default to the "grievance" model. For example, in his recent <a href="http://www.isaf.nato.int/the-afghan-hands-blog/commanders-blog/comisaf-guidance-01-aug-2010.html">COMISAF Counterinsurgency Guidance</a> (released Aug 1, 2010), most of GEN Petraeus' advice revolves around winning over the local populace by addressing their grievances (in terms of security, governance, and services) and building trust in ISAF and the GIRoA. Corn essentially argues that we're missing half of the picture if we're only considering this grievance-focused solution. We must also consider the alternative that many of the most prominent and powerful Afghans are in fact motivated by greed and opportunism. It is therefore in their interest to maintain the <span style="font-style: italic;">status quo</span> of massive US and international spending that fuels the Afghan "rentier state" economy. As <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-06-24/david-petraeus-cant-win-in-afghanistan-because-of-hamid-karzai/">Ambassador Peter Galbraith explains</a>:<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">"Americans view the war as a contest between the U.S.-backed Karzai government and the Taliban insurgency. The reality is more complex. In the Pashtun south where the insurgency is strongest, local power brokers and officials have relations with the Taliban, who are tribesmen and relatives. They make deals with each other to run drugs, trade weapons, eliminate rivals, and rig elections. Both sides collaborate in order to profit from massive U.S. expenditures. The U.S. spends hundreds of millions on Afghan security companies who use the proceeds to pay off the Taliban not to attack, or, in some cases, to stage attacks so as to enable the local warlord (a.k.a. security contractor) to hire more men at higher prices."</span><br /><br />So, how should this reality inform (and change) our understanding of the complexities at work in Kandahar? As Corn explains (in what I view as the most important takeaway from his paper), we must view Hamid Karzai not as the Afghan president, but rather as the CEO of "Karzai Incorporated." From this lens, many of his recent and past actions make sense - repeatedly shielding various cronies from anti-corruption investigations and using his position as president to gain control of a greater share of foreign aid and increase his patronage. In Kandahar in particular, the <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/229777/dying-karzai-cartel/ann-marlowe">situation described by Ann Marlowe</a> appears to be spot on:<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">"Ahmed Wali Karzai is running a mafia out of Kandahar, and his brother Hamid Karzai is protecting him. This mafia is worth over a billion a year to him, if the Times of London is to be believed...In fact, it may no longer be the case that AWK does what he does in order to strengthen the hand of his brother: It may be that Hamid does what he does to strengthen the hand of AWK." </span><br /><br />When you examine Hamid Karzai's recent <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/16/AR2010081602041.html">decision to eliminate all private security companies</a> (PSCs) through this "greed" lens it begins to make more sense. I believe this surprise announcement by Karzai is another move in his efforts to gain more leverage over ISAF leaders in his overall campaign to maintain his "bottom line" as leader of Karzai, Inc. When coupled with his recent criticism and challenging of the efforts of the US-backed Major Crimes Task Force and Special Investigative Unit, both of which have <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703748904575411180243395258.html">implicated several close associates of Karzai</a> in massive corruption and money laundering schemes, his latest move to eliminate PSCs is likely motivated by two complimentary goals:<br /><br />1) In the short term, to essentially "call the bluff" of ISAF leaders who constantly pressure Karzai to eliminate corruption. By speeding up the timetable for eliminating PSCs to four months, Karzai will force ISAF leaders to concede that PSCs are in fact necessary for success in Afghanistan (at least over the next 12-18 months as ANSF build capacity);<br /><br />2) In the medium to long-term, to enable Karzai's government to exert more control over the private security efforts across the country - the competition to Karzai, Inc. Under Karzai's plan, his government would oversee all efforts to transition and integrate what are currently "private" companies into the formal Afghan security forces. Thus, Karzai Inc. would essentially determine which private companies continue to exist (albeit, now as nominal Afghan security forces) and which would not. This is the ultimate move to consolidate control of the security industry and eliminate competition.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/17/AR2010081701285.html">Claims of confusion and outrage</a> on the part of some of these private security companies, like the massive and powerful <a href="http://www.watan-group.com/">Watan Group</a> that employs over 24,000 security guards, are in fact staged blustering to disguise the consolidation going on below the surface. Ahmad and Rashid Popal, owners of Watan, are actually cousins of Hamid and Ahmed Karzai and have a <a href="http://www.understandingwar.org/afghanistan-project/publications/reports/consolidating-private-security-companies-southern-afghanistan">long history of cooperation and mutual interest</a>. While their claims that security guards who lose their jobs will join the Taliban may at first seem to have merit, its much more likely that Watan will end up growing and gaining more power/influence (albeit likely under a different name or even as nominal ANSF). Whatever the public/official outcome, the Karzai enterprise stands only to gain through this consolidation of PSCs. For an excellent summary and analysis of this dynamic, please see Kim Kagan and Carl Forsberg's piece for the <span style="font-style: italic;">Institute for the Study of War</span>, written at the end of May, that essentially <a href="http://www.understandingwar.org/afghanistan-project/publications/reports/consolidating-private-security-companies-southern-afghanistan">predicted this move for consolidation</a>.<br /><br />Looking forward, US and ISAF strategy and policy must recognize this reality and integrate an understanding of the "greed" paradigm into our efforts. While addressing the grievances of the local populace is a critical component of our COIN campaign, we cannot become solely focused on achieving this end. As Tony Corn advocates, we must complement the ongoing tactical/operational military surge with a policy of <span style="font-style: italic;">coercive diplomacy</span> at the strategic level. At the most basic level, coercive diplomacy would send the message (primarily to Karzai and his cronies) that our commitment is not open-ended and unconditional. This policy represents our best option to affect the growing influence and "greed" of Karzai, Inc. For a more detailed discussion of what this policy might look like at the national level, see the recent articles by <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39432.html">Robert Blackwill in Politico</a> (advocating a de facto partition of Afghanistan) and <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/2010/07/18/we-re-not-winning-it-s-not-worth-it.html">Richard Haas in Newsweek</a> (advocating a "patchworkization" of Afghanistan).<br /><br />So, what does this look like in Kandahar - the "main effort" in our current campaign? Ultimately, we must resolve the dissonance between Obama's policy of unconditional support for Hamid Karzai (and thus the larger Karzai enterprise) and the ISAF strategy of providing a lasting and comprehensive solution in Kandahar. As Corn succinctly explains, "either the policy is (rightly or wrongly) to consider Karzai as indispensable, in which case his Kandahar brother is untouchable, and a Kandahar offensive is a non-starter; or a Kandahar offensive is seen (rightly or wrongly) as the indispensable centerpiece of a COIN strategy, in which Karzai's brother has to go." This is not an easy choice - but we must make a decision. My vote: Ahmed Wali Karzai must go (or at least be heavily marginalized). By acknowledging and eliminating him as the primary source of "greed" in Kandahar, we have an opportunity to send a message to the people and at the same time eliminate a major source of many of their grievances.Pat Ryanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13937507399915070637noreply@blogger.com2