tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post7295501961536552635..comments2024-01-28T09:52:33.515-05:00Comments on al Sahwa: Emerging Threats: Active Shooter ScenarioPat Ryanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13937507399915070637noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-44625148407276460392010-03-02T10:50:27.887-05:002010-03-02T10:50:27.887-05:00Since our discussion has waned on the original sub...Since our discussion has waned on the original subject, I think it's a good time to tie up the loose ends. <br /><br />Imagination: Schmedlap focused that active shooter scenario on the interstate system. AQ has shown a propensity for targeting mass transit systems around the world. If the mass transit system is well protected, then Schmedlap's view point increases in likelihood. Each metropolis is different, so, if a city's mass transit system is well protected, then law enforcement professionals should look to the next threat.<br /><br />My focus was a combination of Active Shooter and Hostage scenario. I received a scholarly paper that analyzed historical examples of this scenario, focused on Mumbai, Beslan, and the Moscow Theater siege. I plan on collaborating with the author to produce a better product than I can build myself. Using historical examples, we will continue to flush this scenario out in order to produce a product that homeland security and law enforcement officials can use to thwart similar situations. Hopefully we can produce a finished product some time around April/May <br /><br />Thanks for everyone's comments, I am a true believer of "Unity of Effort".JDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15229922275251649001noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-9180602225441500392010-03-01T10:22:42.054-05:002010-03-01T10:22:42.054-05:00In re. to DP, my comment may be what they want but...In re. to DP, my comment may be what they want but it also is backed by the reported heritage of multiple 'home grown' terrorists. In a common trend, a group emigrates to a nation with greater wealth and safety than their own but very different norms. The first generation who originally immigrated will probably avoid getting too close to the dominant population, and will experience discrimination and misunderstandings. <br />The second and third generations will be brought up in a situation where they will theoretically have the advantages of the culture they are assimilating into, but at the same time they will be judged by stereotypes and see a gap in what their parents teach them and what the mainstream culture teaches them. From this comes uncertainty about what their values should be, and if their heritage includes a part of the world that is politically volatile at this time (as it is in the Middle East) they may become attracted to what appears to be a simple, pure ideology. As a note, they will probably be very different from their parents in this regard as one of the main reasons for why their parents left was probably to escape the violence of that nation.<br /><br />Now, if we base our actions simply on what I have stated here we are doomed to failure. You are correct that AQ and associated groups want 'white' America to react with racism and fear. Deciding that someone is dangerous because they were 'flying while Muslim*' is an incredible waste of resources and will probably cause even further radicalization rather than less. However, I made that statement with a reason. Unless you make an effort to understand the background and thinking of the people who are most likely to be targeted for radicalization, you won't have much luck in establishing rational guidelines for how to handle the situation.<br /><br />*The quote comes from the first episode of Little Mosque on the Prairie. Interesting series.Gyrehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11139372297929361578noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-3400516282674039062010-03-01T09:29:39.812-05:002010-03-01T09:29:39.812-05:00Gyre,
I agree that the economic hardship faced by...Gyre,<br /><br />I agree that the economic hardship faced by the USSR was a great factor - if not the driving factor - in their collapse. I agree also that AQ's strategy is to intensify the war in Af/Pak, but think it is clear that they want to fight the "far enemy," America and Western Europe, and bring it directly to us.<br /><br />I am thinking here not only of Abdulmutallah but of thwarted attempts too, like that in 2006:<br />"...intended targets were flights from the United Kingdom to the United States of America."<br />http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4778575.stm.<br /><br />Your comment, "...and I would be an American who was also a second-generation descendant from some nation in Northern Africa/Middle East or possibly South Asia," is exactly what they want (I think); which is why they exploit/co-opt Hasan and Awlaki in AQ propaganda.<br /><br />I think JD is right, though, that if they are recruiting persons to organically operate within the US, their best chance may be from Canada; i.e. Jabarah (2003).<br />http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,463428,00.html.<br /><br />Let me know what you think.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-84698529778453325852010-02-28T10:14:55.384-05:002010-02-28T10:14:55.384-05:00Schmedlap,
Now that we have identified the feasib...Schmedlap,<br /><br />Now that we have identified the feasibility of an active shooter scenario, we now need to develop our best counter strategy without getting too detailed for OPSEC reasons. I would love to get a local law enforcement officer's opinion on countering the active shooter scenario; training, IPB analysis, tip line program that can be enduring or pushed out upon receipt of threats, ect. <br /><br />Gyre,<br /><br />You bring up several more scenarios that deserve their own attention. I think the "Emerging Threats" series will be a continual occurrence. I also want to develop a High Payoff Target List for AQ. You also made a comment that most people probably missed the importance of, "What would I do if I was an AQ member". It is vital that we put our "Red Hats On", and think from THEIR perspective. Only then will we attain the Zen level of imagination necessary to foresee and thwart future attacks. I will revisit your comments on a post that is more aligned to the type of threat you believe is likely. Great Job!JDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15229922275251649001noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-18231053352785326392010-02-27T20:08:35.559-05:002010-02-27T20:08:35.559-05:00In re. to JD, I would say that from AQ's persp...In re. to JD, I would say that from AQ's perspective their strategy actually worked very well. Remember that these are people who argue (and probably believe) that the Soviet-Afghan war was the sole cause of the U.S.SR's collapse, rather than contributing to the economic problems which were a greater cause. AQ may even believe based on the current global problems that they have even succeeded. In my opinion AQ only has a limited understanding of the U.S, and may actually believe that by forcing the U.S to leave and defeating the current Afghan government they can bring about the collapse of the U.S. Therefore, for AQ the correct strategy would probably be to actually intensify the war and probably try to reestablish links with Iraqi Sunnis.<br />Regardless of my pet theories, I've actually considered what I would do if I were an AQ member about to launch an attack in the U.S. To start I assume I would be a bit narcissistic, I would think myself better than the people around me who didn't try to make the world better, I would be in my mid-twenties, I would probably have a degree in engineering, and I would be an American who was also a second-generation descendant from some nation in Northern Africa/Middle East or possibly South Asia.<br />My target would be a national monument/train or a public figure, probably a mid-rank government official. <br />For the monument I would probably assume that I would not be able to sneak a gun or bomb directly into to it, so instead I would decide to use a bomb at the entrance way. Based on my own experiences at several it is likely to be a relatively narrow hallway with several dozen people close together. I also assume that there probably would be two or three guards of varying quality and ability nearby, possibly armed. My strategy would be to enter, let several people enter behind me, assume that hidden sensors had detected my bomb and detonate it. I assume that the explosion, smoke, smashed glass, and heat would kill at least a dozen people and possibly two or three dozen.<br />For the train I haven't extensively studied security on trains but the strategy would be effectively the same. I know based on information from a friend formerly in the military who now does security consulting that train and airport detection is flaky. In some places they're good, in some places they're terrible.<br />For the public figure I would spend far more time studying the situation. My priority would be to test the security by arranging to visit the official or a similar one at the workplace (without any bombs) simply to see how it proceeded. If it seemed as though I would not be able to reach them without being detected I would try an attack outside the workplace*. Outside the workplace I would try to find their home address (not that difficult), and guess based on a month-long study (in a crowded area of course) at what time they would be likely to travel near me. Then I would stop all actions for perhaps a month or two to throw off any possible detection. At the end of this I would return to that position, and once I had confirmed the official's presence I would detonate. To be honest I find the assassination approach the most dangerous of the three. Personally I would prefer the monument approach.<br /><br />I am fully aware that a terrorist could read this and get ideas, but to be honest if they needed my thoughts to do this they probably aren't capable of carrying off an attack and should go back to being an angry young man.<br /><br />*Interestingly, I noticed during projects on criminal justice that a county courthouse had much better security (though still fallible) than a state senator did.Gyrehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11139372297929361578noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-14948318843510447892010-02-27T17:32:09.651-05:002010-02-27T17:32:09.651-05:00I can't figure out why no terrorists have atte...I can't figure out why no terrorists have attempted the following. Total manpower requirement: 10 to 20, depending on how ambitious they are. Total cost: less than $100,000.<br /><br />Two or three terrorists cause a non-threatening accident and/or simply block traffic on the interstate during rush hour - say on I-395N going into DC. The interstate becomes an instant parking lot. They set the vehicle(s) on fire to block the highway and then start hosing people with automatic weapons (think guys with AKs and a backpack full of loaded mags). 2 more terrorists do the same exact thing a mile behind them. 5 or so terrorists with automatic weapons (think M240, M60, or similar) are positioned on the edge of the highway, between the two scenes, and start hosing people who are trapped on the interstate. After spraying 2000 rounds of 7.62 per weapon, they grab an AK and backpack full of ammo and join in with the others to hose anyone still moving/fleeing. They could kill hundreds in mere minutes for whatever the cost of the weapons, ammunition, and car rentals (with or without rental insurance). Throw in anything more, such as improvised weapons intended to set vehicles on fire (which would spread quickly in gridlocked traffic) and the bill does not go up very much, nor does the required level of sophistication (oily rags + dry matches).<br /><br />Depending upon the speed of the law enforcement reaction, they could kill hundreds more. How are you going to stop that? <br /><br />Now consider the response. How many emergency personnel are you going to need to treat casualties? Before they can do much in the way of evacuation, how many firefighters will you need to put out the fires? Before that happens, how are police going to simultaneously clear traffic for the fire trucks and respond to the shooters? Generally, fire trucks make it through traffic because people move their vehicles out of the way. That's not the case if everyone is running away from their vehicles or dead behind the wheel. <br /><br />If said terrorists really want to up the ante, they only need to have a few other individuals waiting for the first responders before they start shooting (say, for example, in a hotel room overlooking on and off ramps, or in a van that they intend to ditch and set fire to before beginning). Now nobody knows if there are more shooters, where they would be, whether they are still hiding. <br /><br />Even after it all plays out, now you've got an interstate full of charred or abandoned vehicles. How long is that going to take to clear? Until then, I don't know if you've ever seen a good traffic jam in DC, but the city would be paralyzed. In my opinion, this would be far more chaotic than the Pentagon attack. <br /><br />And, even if we were to see this play out, how do you prevent it from happening again? I don't think it's preventable unless we are damn good at detecting plans for such stuff. But given how easy it would be to plan and execute, how would we stop that? Maybe that's just one of the trade-offs of living in a free and open society.<br /><br />I typed all of this on the assumption that no aspiring terrorists read your blog.Schmedlaphttp://www.schmedlap.com/weblognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-57404665143619130462010-02-27T08:31:49.990-05:002010-02-27T08:31:49.990-05:00Dan,
I would love to get some law enforcement pe...Dan,<br /><br /> I would love to get some law enforcement perspective, especially concerning the sharing of intelligence, in fact we need to do a well researched post on the regional fusion cells. <br /><br />Gyre, I think you brought up an important aspect that I failed to address, what's the end state? Why would AQ conduct an active shooter operation, how could they benefit? This question is probably the most important one to ask because it helps us focus our efforts. I can remember an instance when Pat and I put our heads together and asked the very same questions about a reported threat toward my COP. We both came to the same conclusion, the threat report was focused on the wrong location, and we nearly picked the correct location all from asking ourselves, "why would they attack here?". Multiple heads are better than one, so throw out some plausible reasons.<br /><br />Our Predator drone program has successfully applied pressure on AQ senior leadership and their external operations cell. Ali Abdullah Saleh's government is targeting AQAP with some degree of success. Since both of those are the most effective AQ elements, they will probably attempt to divert our focus from those areas. AQ needs to create some breathing room. The best scenario for them is an attack that originates in an ally nation (Canada or UK) or a nation/region that we don't currently target with regularity (Somalia, South America). Gyre you were dead on when you pointed out the previous AQ attacks were meant to draw us into Afghanistan. Since that plan is not working for them, they need to get us out of the region before their network is reduced. I really think that if a terror cell infiltrates the United States from the Mexican border, it would cause our government to immediately dump billions of dollars into border security. Those are billions we don't have right now, which would affect Afghanistan's budget. Keep the ideas flowing!JDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15229922275251649001noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-67757660045577135752010-02-26T21:31:59.686-05:002010-02-26T21:31:59.686-05:00JD,
On this date in 1993, AQ bombed the WTC (gara...JD,<br /><br />On this date in 1993, AQ bombed the WTC (garage). Last week, Zazi pleaded guilty. I think air transportation remains the #1, but these scenarios remind us that land transportation is a close #2.<br /><br />I advise we study in more depth, for example, NYPD CTB's (Counterterrorism Bureau) Manhattan Project: a "think web of security."<br />http://www.infowars.com/the-manhattan-project-new-yorks-high-tech-panopticon/.<br /><br />Of course, this is gearged for NYC financial district, but it shows us how satellites can be used in the future for even smaller, more rural locations. We need connected hubs that can accurately drive information sharing in order to provide a timely response.<br /><br />I think a matrix-like system is needed, and I have shared some thoughts (initial) on past posts: "bubblenet intelleigence." It would pragmatically use a social networking venue like, for example, twitter - but be used (and secured) for intel and first responders officers only.<br /><br />I am one to advocate planning, so I feel there is a continued need for this brainstorming.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-84526689560691201252010-02-26T18:28:23.398-05:002010-02-26T18:28:23.398-05:00Gyre: I believe your logic is mainstream and is w...Gyre: I believe your logic is mainstream and is why I think this scenario is a possibility. Simply put, we need to remain imaginative. I have personally witnessed over 10 suicide bombers, thus I have no doubt they can facilitate this.<br /><br />Anon & DC: The Current Threat level is Yellow (I googled it), so I don't think we need to worry about this tonight. I do think that we need to flush this scenario out in order to bring awareness and generate options. I picked a scenario that didn't use FATA based terrorists or home grown terrorists because, as you both alluded to, we are highly vigilant toward these groups. Could 10 hand picked terrorists infiltrate The United States from the story below? http://refugeeresettlementwatch.wordpress.com/2010/02/23/ice-looking-for-270-illegal-somalis-who-could-be-connected-to-al-shabaab/<br /><br />I like all three comments, we need to keep picking away at this!JDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15229922275251649001noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-86095207020459691202010-02-26T17:23:51.836-05:002010-02-26T17:23:51.836-05:00I'd agree with Anon @ 5:15pm that this kind of...I'd agree with Anon @ 5:15pm that this kind of operation would more likely be carried out by a fellow traveller organisation than as a planned AQ attack. I also believe that it would probably be more attractive in the UK where the proportion of armed police/civilians who could respond is significantly different to the US. The average UK shopping centre (mall) has a 3-4 main entry-exit points with additional access to parking - that really wouldn't need a lot of people to control.DChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09946713357399867904noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-60468696597559682442010-02-26T17:15:26.330-05:002010-02-26T17:15:26.330-05:001. Thanks for freaking us out.
2. I think it is mo...1. Thanks for freaking us out.<br />2. I think it is more likely a small group (Ft. Dix or N.VA 5) would try to do this than a FATA based operation. The logistics of getting 10 into the USA are hard, maybe even a long shot. <br />3. I agree that small towns are the ultimate target. The reaction would be hysteria.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-75967532186518790632010-02-26T17:08:17.004-05:002010-02-26T17:08:17.004-05:00To be honest I find this scenario a bit unlikely. ...To be honest I find this scenario a bit unlikely. To start most terrorists, despite common opinion, do not want to engage in missions where they are sure to die or be captured. True, suicide bombers do just that but they are also clearly the minority in terrorist organizations. Also, most suicide bombers do not engage in activities such as spending large amounts of time shooting people. Most use a trigger to explode after they have reached the target, making law enforcement responses less of an issue.<br />The second problem is that Al Qaeda does not seem especially interested in causing the United States to overreact and damage freedom in the US itself. The reasons given in AQ documents were that the strategy was to cause the US to attack Afghanistan and other areas where AQ was known to be, thereby recreating the circumstances of the Soviet-Afghan war. Causing the US to be more authoritarian at home was not mentioned.Gyrehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11139372297929361578noreply@blogger.com