tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post5943716794104527311..comments2024-01-28T09:52:33.515-05:00Comments on al Sahwa: Bekkay Harrach Confirmed Dead in AfghanistanPat Ryanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13937507399915070637noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-30138191028888587672011-03-23T15:03:10.759-04:002011-03-23T15:03:10.759-04:00Is there any info on IMU involvement in south Kyrg...Is there any info on IMU involvement in south Kyrgyzstan ethnic conflict(June 2010)?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-35514918668929865082011-02-04T10:59:38.902-05:002011-02-04T10:59:38.902-05:00I'm with Josh on this one. Many a commander h...I'm with Josh on this one. Many a commander has risked to get some street cred in many a battle. Seems as likely as any other theory with a dose of Occam's Razor (or Hanlon's Razor, depending...). The pre-battle conversation probably went like this:<br /><br />Taliban Commander: We will strike the devil in his den with a an army of martyrs tomorrow!<br /><br />Harrach: Brother, let me lead some of your martyrs for glory.<br /><br />Taliban Commander: Are you sure brother? this is a dangerous mission! <br /><br />Harrach: I give my life for the jihad.<br /><br />Army PFC on the HESCO: Roger, I see him. pop popSparapethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15145022421958154919noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-52867994294495373292011-02-04T00:52:44.130-05:002011-02-04T00:52:44.130-05:00Or possibly he was trying to get some wasta and lo...Or possibly he was trying to get some wasta and look like a jihad hero to the Euro front?Josh McLaughlinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13999710013022934333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4549570844246420522.post-47159831628116437452011-01-31T18:27:26.802-05:002011-01-31T18:27:26.802-05:00Pat,
Congrats on Georgetown, and good luck.
I th...Pat,<br /><br />Congrats on Georgetown, and good luck.<br /><br />I think that if we assume a purely rationalistic take on BH that we have a few possible reasons why one might risk a supposedly important operative. The first is the one that you provide, which I will call the Obi Wan Kenobi theory. However, there are at least two other possibilities. <br /><br />One is that either BH was not that key to the European members of Al Qaeda, or that the European members as a whole are not that valuable. In the later case, there are several possibilities, but the most likely seems to be that as Al Qaeda has decentralized to become more of a network and less of an organization each group has become increasingly parochial. As such in an area where Al Qaeda interests are likely dominated by the local ethnic Pashtun's the relatively few Europeans would become secondary actors, or perhaps even liabilities for solidarity. In the end, war, just like politics, was all local. We can call this the parochialization theory.<br /><br />The second possibility is that Al Qaeda is really hard up for people. Al Qaeda was never really that large to begin with and a continuous stream of Hellfire missles can wear a group down. An organization of a few hundred can only afford to lose one person a day for so long. We can call this the attrition theory.<br /><br />None of the three theories is clearly dominant, nor are they mutually exclusive. However, if we start seeing other mid-upper level commanders getting killed in tactical operations we will know that it is probably either the attrition or the parochialization theory. If those commanders are both Pashtun and non-Pashtun then my money is on attrition. If it is primarily 'outlanders', then it looks like parochialization is the winner. In the end, I suppose that the Obi Wan Kenobi motive could be legit, but it sounds to me a lot like something someone tells themselves to feel better about throwing away their life for what is probably nothing. I would not rule out a somewhat irrational mid-level leader who liked to take unnecessary risks, though, so it remains possible.<br /><br />David BensonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com